Do I ship it?

GamesFarming SimFarming Sim + Incremental

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Incremental Farming Sim?

Farming Sim + Incremental

Of 140 developers who shipped an Incremental Farming Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 168 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×3.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $450. Revenue is up 185% on the market; 168 games are announced against 92 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 185% on the market, 168 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Farming Sim + Incremental
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 140
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.9k → $3.8k → $3.9k → $3.1k → $1.0k → $1.8k → $2.1k (still earning) → $1.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Farming Sim + Incremental: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 140
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,647)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,196)
Top 5% $175k (exactly $175,383)
Developers, 2 yr 140
Released games 252
Announced 168
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 185% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Farming Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Farming Sim, Incremental; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Idler, Simulation, Management
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $8.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, Cute, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $8.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 26,556 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 58 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 168 games are announced against 92 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Farming Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair19 devs · median $12k · 23 announced
  2. + DogsFair18 devs · median $4.1k · 20 announced
  3. + IdlerFair208 devs · median $1.3k · 211 announced
  4. + TacticalFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  5. + Artificial IntelligenceFair17 devs · median $718 · 16 announced
  6. + God GameLong shot22 devs · median $359 · 24 announced
  7. + Visual NovelLong shot11 devs · median $239 · 13 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds10 devs · median $146k · 16 announced
  9. + Psychological HorrorPoor odds11 devs · median $111k · 25 announced
  10. + JRPGPoor odds14 devs · median $89k · 20 announced
  11. + HorsesPoor odds14 devs · median $70k · 20 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds24 devs · median $31k · 36 announced

All 102 pairs on the Farming Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Berry Bury Berry $7.99 8,619 98% 259k $2.1M (exactly $2,065,974) Get(Color) Games
Ravenous Devils older $4.99 9,477 92% 284k $1.4M (exactly $1,418,707) Bad Vices Games
Tiny Pasture $5.99 7,055 92% 212k $1.3M (exactly $1,267,784) CaveLiquid
Ropuka's Idle Island $3.99 4,048 95% 121k $485k (exactly $484,546) Moczan, Little Chmura, Begoña Pereda
Plantera older $2.99 4,518 88% 136k $405k (exactly $405,265) VaragtP
Forage Wizard $6.99 1,549 87% 46k $325k (exactly $324,825) Lost Maxim
Capybara Spa older $7.99 1,345 94% 40k $322k (exactly $322,396) Cozy Bee Games
Goblin Nest $6.99 1,177 93% 35k $247k (exactly $246,817) BadColor
How to Train Your Cock $3.99 1,875 95% 56k $224k (exactly $224,438) Little Horror Studios
Plantera 2: Golden Acorn older $4.99 1,191 93% 36k $178k (exactly $178,293) VaragtP
Behind Glass: Aquarium Simulator $14.99 390 95% 12k $175k (exactly $175,383) BitBros Inc
Lakeside Bar $5.99 820 86% 25k $147k (exactly $147,354) BITCOVER
MR FARMBOY $9.99 480 85% 14k $144k (exactly $143,856) mrdboy
Suncraft $6.99 543 92% 16k $114k (exactly $113,867) Spicy Tuna Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.