Do I ship it?

Games › Open World Survival Craft › Open World Survival Craft + Farming Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Farming Sim Open World Survival Craft?

Open World Survival Craft + Farming Sim

Of 24 developers who shipped a Farming Sim Open World Survival Craft in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 36 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 9 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $31k, ×23 the market's $1.3k for a 9 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $15k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.4M, ×1788 the market median. Revenue is up 345% on the market; 36 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 23.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 345% on the market, 36 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World Survival Craft + Farming Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $104k → $262k → $63k → $28k → $325k (still earning) → $22k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World Survival Craft + Farming Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $14k (exactly $14,393)
Median $31k (exactly $31,479)
Top 25% $325k (exactly $324,825)
Top 5% $2.4M (exactly $2,408,432)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 47
Announced 36
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $13.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 345% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World Survival Craft
effort 9 / 10 · low · dedicated multiplayer servers over a huge content build
Farming Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Open World Survival Craft, Farming Sim; all of the top 25% also carry Crafting, Sandbox, Simulation
Price point
$13.99 typical · top 25% priced $22.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $22.99 or above; the middle game at $13.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 38,343 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $15k, median $31k, 1 in 4 over $320k, 1 in 20 over $2.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $15k. 5 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 36 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World Survival Craft with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $307k · 37 announced
  2. + Co-opPoor odds58 devs · median $515k · 127 announced
  3. + Online Co-OpPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  4. + Immersive SimPoor odds14 devs · median $183k · 37 announced
  5. + PhysicsPoor odds8 devs · median $183k · 27 announced
  6. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  7. + MedievalPoor odds13 devs · median $154k · 37 announced
  8. + ShooterPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced
  9. + PvPPoor odds22 devs · median $125k · 56 announced
  10. + Sci-fiPoor odds32 devs · median $124k · 76 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds34 devs · median $116k · 60 announced
  12. + RPGPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced

All 54 pairs on the Open World Survival Craft page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Forager 2019 · $21M Dinkum 2025 · $15M Lightyear Frontier 2024 · EA · $3.2M Solarpunk™ 2026 · $2.4M I Am Future: Cozy Apocalypse Survival 2024 · $2.4M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Forager older $19.99 35,385 90% 1.1M $21M (exactly $21,220,384) HopFrog
Dinkum $19.99 24,641 92% 739k $15M (exactly $14,777,208) James Bendon
Lightyear Frontier · EA older $24.99 4,257 83% 128k $3.2M (exactly $3,191,473) FRAME BREAK
Solarpunk™ $22.99 3,492 81% 105k $2.4M (exactly $2,408,432) Cyberwave
I Am Future: Cozy Apocalypse Survival $19.99 4,011 83% 120k $2.4M (exactly $2,405,397) Mandragora
Mirthwood $24.99 2,242 69% 67k $1.7M (exactly $1,680,827) Bad Ridge Games
Nova Lands older $19.99 2,512 90% 75k $1.5M (exactly $1,506,446) BEHEMUTT
Wildmender older $24.99 1,797 85% 54k $1.3M (exactly $1,347,211) Muse Games
Card Survival: Fantasy Forest · EA $21.99 1,135 76% 34k $749k (exactly $748,760) WinterSpring Games
Spirit of the Island older $14.99 1,191 69% 36k $536k (exactly $535,593) 1M Bits Horde
Forage Wizard $6.99 1,549 87% 46k $325k (exactly $324,825) Lost Maxim
Farm to Table · EA $14.99 645 91% 19k $290k (exactly $290,056) indieGiant
Oppidum $29.99 161 67% 4.8k $145k (exactly $144,852) EP Games®
Wonderia · EA $13.99 276 80% 8.3k $116k (exactly $115,837) Rock&Dash
Island Beekeeper $11.99 191 72% 5.7k $69k (exactly $68,703) Akuseru Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.