Do I ship it?

Games › JRPG › JRPG + Farming Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Farming Sim JRPG?

JRPG + Farming Sim

Only 14 developers shipped a Farming Sim JRPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Rune Factory: Guardians of Azuma, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $89k, ×141 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $18k; 1 in 20 cleared $5.3M, ×8445 the market median. Revenue is up 230% on the market; 20 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 141.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 230% on the market, 20 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG + Farming Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.5k → $3.0k → $324k → $164k → $3.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for JRPG + Farming Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $18k (exactly $17,538)
Median $89k (exactly $88,689)
Top 25% $324k (exactly $323,838)
Top 5% $5.3M (exactly $5,303,716)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 40
Announced 20
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 230% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Farming Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG, Farming Sim; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Crafting, RPG, Exploration
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime, Cozy
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 6,589 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $18k, median $89k, 1 in 4 over $320k, 1 in 20 over $5.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $18k. 6 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

JRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  3. + NinjaFair7 devs · median $19k · 10 announced
  4. + RomanceFair153 devs · median $13k · 164 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  6. + ManagementFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair41 devs · median $8.4k · 45 announced
  9. + LootFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  12. + Artificial IntelligenceFair25 devs · median $4.0k · 21 announced

All 142 pairs on the JRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Rune Factory: Guardians of Azuma 2025 · $5.3M HARVESTELLA 2022 · $3.7M Cloud Meadow 2020 · EA · $3.1M Rune Factory 5 2022 · $2.3M Rune Factory 4 Special 2021 · $1.9M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rune Factory: Guardians of Azuma $59.99 2,947 88% 88k $5.3M (exactly $5,303,716) Marvelous Inc.
HARVESTELLA older $59.99 2,071 77% 62k $3.7M (exactly $3,727,179) Square Enix
Cloud Meadow · EA older $19.99 5,134 85% 154k $3.1M (exactly $3,078,860) Team Nimbus
Rune Factory 5 older $39.99 1,940 76% 58k $2.3M (exactly $2,327,418) Marvelous Inc.
Rune Factory 4 Special older $29.99 2,070 88% 62k $1.9M (exactly $1,862,379) Marvelous Inc.
Re:Legend older $24.99 1,514 56% 45k $1.1M (exactly $1,135,046) Magnus Games Studio
Rune Factory 3 Special older $39.99 734 94% 22k $881k (exactly $880,580) Marvelous Inc.
Welcome to Elderfield $17.99 1,334 87% 40k $720k (exactly $719,960) Chris Cote
SunnySide older $19.99 913 67% 27k $548k (exactly $547,526) Aftabi Games
Ova Magica $29.99 581 91% 17k $523k (exactly $522,726) ClaudiaTheDev, Skinny Frog
One Lonely Outpost $19.99 540 58% 16k $324k (exactly $323,838) indie.io
Fox Sex Farm $17.99 413 82% 12k $223k (exactly $222,896) R's
Dragon Song Tavern: Cozy & Adventurous $19.90 274 71% 8.2k $164k (exactly $163,578) Etherous Games Limited
Farmagia $49.99 63 46% 1.9k $94k (exactly $94,481) Marvelous Inc.
Syn-Chorus 01: The New Life · EA $10.99 269 83% 8.1k $89k (exactly $88,689) PrisMaze棱镜迷阵
Dream Life in the Country Side $14.99 87 83% 2.6k $39k (exactly $39,124) Moonlit Cafe
The Lustful Inn of Female Adventurers $9.99 81 76% 2.4k $24k (exactly $24,276) StudioVR

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.