Do I ship it?

GamesTrading Card GameTrading Card Game + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Trading Card Game?

Trading Card Game + Fantasy

Of 73 developers who shipped a paid Fantasy Trading Card Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 4 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 173 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $81k, ×130 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 173 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 173 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Trading Card Game + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 73
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0k → $1.2k → $1.1k → $1.2k → $6.5k → $359 → $450 (still earning) → $390 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Trading Card Game + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 73
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $598 (exactly $598)
Top 25% $4.9k (exactly $4,855)
Top 5% $82k (exactly $81,845)
Developers, 2 yr 73
Released games 261
Announced 173
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 43%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Trading Card Game
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Trading Card Game; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Card Game, Strategy, Card Battler
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 4,234 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $600, 1 in 4 over $4.8k, 1 in 20 over $81k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 8 in 10 of the 49 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 173 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Trading Card Game with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Immersive SimStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  2. + SandboxFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  3. + Inventory ManagementFair21 devs · median $1.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Procedural GenerationPoor odds10 devs · median $10k · 26 announced
  5. + TradingPoor odds16 devs · median $10k · 36 announced
  6. + Life SimPoor odds18 devs · median $10k · 21 announced
  7. + CollectathonPoor odds26 devs · median $6.3k · 41 announced
  8. + HistoricalPoor odds15 devs · median $6.1k · 25 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds11 devs · median $4.9k · 25 announced
  10. + Auto BattlerPoor odds22 devs · median $3.4k · 27 announced
  11. + Roguelike DeckbuilderPoor odds24 devs · median $3.4k · 38 announced
  12. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $3.1k · 36 announced

All 69 pairs on the Trading Card Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Kingdom Rush Vengeance - Tower Defense older $19.99 9,906 93% 297k $5.9M (exactly $5,940,628) Ironhide Game Studio
Yu-Gi-Oh! Legacy of the Duelist older $19.99 4,452 83% 134k $2.7M (exactly $2,669,864) Other Ocean Interactive
Aces & Adventures older $19.99 2,220 89% 67k $1.3M (exactly $1,331,334) Triple.B.Titles
Faeria older $19.99 1,520 83% 46k $912k (exactly $911,544) Abrakam Entertainment SA
Dream of Corpse Lady $9.99 2,115 93% 63k $634k (exactly $633,866) HT3 Studio
Ascension: Deckbuilding Game older $9.99 1,435 88% 43k $430k (exactly $430,070) Playdek, Inc.
Arcanium: Rise of Akhan older $19.99 670 81% 20k $402k (exactly $401,799) Supercombo, Inc.
FORCED SHOWDOWN older $19.99 491 82% 15k $294k (exactly $294,453) BetaDwarf
Ruff Ghanor older $19.99 435 85% 13k $261k (exactly $260,869) DX Gameworks
Erannorth Chronicles older $20.99 407 85% 12k $256k (exactly $256,288) Spyridon Thalassinos
Villages & Dungeons $6.99 1,036 91% 31k $217k (exactly $217,249) CaCaFrog Studio
Culdcept The First $29.99 95 74% 2.9k $85k (exactly $85,472) CITY CONNECTION
Witch and Council : The Card $14.99 182 48% 5.5k $82k (exactly $81,845) G1 Playground
Fuckstone $11.99 217 88% 6.5k $78k (exactly $78,055) Anime Mania
Stash: A Card Looter $9.99 186 79% 5.6k $56k (exactly $55,744) WheeGaming
Succubless $11.99 146 67% 4.4k $53k (exactly $52,516) Supa Doge
Islets Defense $9.99 129 94% 3.9k $39k (exactly $38,661) MiniGoof
Handmancers · EA $14.99 76 88% 2.3k $34k (exactly $34,177) 58BLADES
Fairtravel Battle CCG · EA $14.99 52 98% 1.6k $23k (exactly $23,384) Flaming Torch Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.