Do I ship it?

GamesTop-Down ShooterTop-Down Shooter + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Top-Down Shooter?

Top-Down Shooter + Fantasy

Of 182 developers who shipped a Fantasy Top-Down Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 304 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×1.1 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $41k, ×88 the market median. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 304 games are announced against 100 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 304 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Top-Down Shooter + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 182
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $838 → $1.5k → $2.7k → $537 → $657 → $1.2k → $449 (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Top-Down Shooter + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 182
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $539 (exactly $539)
Top 25% $4.3k (exactly $4,287)
Top 5% $42k (exactly $41,983)
Developers, 2 yr 182
Released games 486
Announced 304
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Top-Down Shooter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Bullet Hell, Action Roguelike
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 9,743 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $540, 1 in 4 over $4.2k, 1 in 20 over $41k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 96 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 304 games are announced against 100 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Top-Down Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + VampiresFair16 devs · median $3.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Turn-Based StrategyFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  3. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 15 announced
  4. + IdlerFair24 devs · median $748 · 30 announced
  5. + ArcheryFair9 devs · median $359 · 11 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds12 devs · median $6.5k · 28 announced
  7. + Tactical RPGPoor odds12 devs · median $5.5k · 16 announced
  8. + Action RTSPoor odds14 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  9. + HistoricalPoor odds18 devs · median $3.3k · 24 announced
  10. + ModernPoor odds13 devs · median $3.3k · 19 announced
  11. + CraftingPoor odds45 devs · median $3.1k · 125 announced
  12. + DystopianPoor odds24 devs · median $3.1k · 92 announced

All 150 pairs on the Top-Down Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Darksiders Genesis older $29.99 10,379 82% 311k $9.3M (exactly $9,337,986) Airship Syndicate
Minishoot' Adventures older $14.99 7,818 97% 235k $3.5M (exactly $3,515,755) SoulGame Studio
Ship of Fools older $21.99 5,040 82% 151k $3.3M (exactly $3,324,888) Fika Productions
Tiny Rogues · EA older $9.99 10,244 96% 307k $3.1M (exactly $3,070,127) RubyDev
Nine Parchments older $19.99 4,123 77% 124k $2.5M (exactly $2,472,563) Frozenbyte
Tower of Babel: Survivors of Chaos $12.99 6,281 68% 188k $2.4M (exactly $2,447,706) NANOO
Nordic Ashes: Survivors of Ragnarok older $9.99 6,180 88% 185k $1.9M (exactly $1,852,146) Noxfall Studios
永远消失的幻想乡 ~ The Disappearing of Gensokyo older $10.99 3,023 83% 91k $997k (exactly $996,683) MyACG Studio
Bounty of One older $6.99 2,749 88% 82k $576k (exactly $576,465) OptizOnion
CYGNI: All Guns Blazing older $29.99 448 60% 13k $403k (exactly $403,066) KeelWorks
Castle Of Alchemists $14.99 618 80% 19k $278k (exactly $277,915) Team Machiavelli
Crafty Survivors $11.99 712 83% 21k $256k (exactly $256,106) Flannel Bear Games
DunHero $8.99 530 89% 16k $143k (exactly $142,941) Dev Kacper
Hand of Fate: Hordes · EA $11.99 312 79% 9.4k $112k (exactly $112,226) Spitfire Interactive
Demon Hunt · EA $6.99 460 77% 14k $96k (exactly $96,462) Massive Hug
Desperate Place $10.99 253 66% 7.6k $83k (exactly $83,414) BruceGalaxy
Pinball Storm: Lokanta $5.99 434 70% 13k $78k (exactly $77,990) Aastral Dynamics
DAMON and BABY $19.99 87 89% 2.6k $52k (exactly $52,174) Arc System Works
Mamorukun ReCurse! $24.99 56 94% 1.7k $42k (exactly $41,983) CITY CONNECTION, TAKE×0FF

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.