Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Deckbuilding

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Deckbuilding Sports game?

Sports + Deckbuilding

Of 41 developers who shipped a Deckbuilding Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 58 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×2.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $120k, ×202 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 58 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 58 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Deckbuilding
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 41
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $22k → $4.3k → $6.9k → $8.8k → $479 (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Deckbuilding: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 41
Bottom 30% $270 (exactly $270)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,647)
Top 25% $8.8k (exactly $8,807)
Top 5% $127k (exactly $127,168)
Developers, 2 yr 41
Released games 60
Announced 58
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 125% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, Deckbuilding; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Card Battler, Simulation, Card Game
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 12,517 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $8.8k, 1 in 20 over $120k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 58 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
INAZUMA ELEVEN: Victory Road $69.99 11,180 88% 335k $23M (exactly $23,474,646) LEVEL5 Inc.
Esports Godfather older $19.99 4,319 90% 130k $2.6M (exactly $2,590,104) Asteroid Game Studio
NUTMEG! A Nostalgic Deckbuilding Football Manager $24.99 378 89% 11k $283k (exactly $283,387) Sumo Digital, Sumo Digital Academy
Golfie older $17.99 275 66% 8.3k $148k (exactly $148,418) Triheart Studio
Bombunter $39.99 106 89% 3.2k $127k (exactly $127,168) Clava STOVE
Clutchtime™: Basketball Deckbuilder $19.99 180 77% 5.4k $108k (exactly $107,946) Bigosaur
Outpost Legends $39.99 84 95% 2.5k $101k (exactly $100,775) OUT LLL
Ocean Rush $39.99 84 91% 2.5k $101k (exactly $100,775) riko
Pro Jank Footy $14.99 215 80% 6.5k $97k (exactly $96,686) Powerbomb Games, Tinker Town
Squiggle Football $16.99 144 93% 4.3k $73k (exactly $73,397) Max Barry
Infinity: HexaDome Tactics $19.99 92 75% 2.8k $55k (exactly $55,172) Blindspot Games
Football Rising:Zero to Hero $14.99 54 90% 1.6k $24k (exactly $24,284) Den Spade

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.