Do I ship it?

Games › Hex Grid › Hex Grid + Deckbuilding

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Deckbuilding Hex Grid game?

Hex Grid + Deckbuilding

Of 23 developers who shipped a Deckbuilding Hex Grid game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 61 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.5k, ×9.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $160k, ×351 the market median. Revenue is up 120% on the market; 61 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 120% on the market, 61 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hex Grid + Deckbuilding
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $143k → $3.3k → $1.6k → $3.9k → $5.5k (still earning) → $12k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Hex Grid + Deckbuilding: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $2.2k (exactly $2,158)
Median $4.5k (exactly $4,491)
Top 25% $66k (exactly $65,656)
Top 5% $167k (exactly $166,839)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 54
Announced 61
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 120% on the market, supply 260% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hex Grid
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Hex Grid, Deckbuilding; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 2,357 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.2k, median $4.5k, 1 in 4 over $65k, 1 in 20 over $160k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.2k. 5 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 61 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Hex Grid with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Local MultiplayerFair12 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  2. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  3. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds7 devs · median $19k · 18 announced
  4. + Turn-BasedPoor odds22 devs · median $13k · 35 announced
  5. + SandboxPoor odds23 devs · median $12k · 40 announced
  6. + ExplorationPoor odds35 devs · median $12k · 55 announced
  7. + RPGPoor odds39 devs · median $10k · 96 announced
  8. + Strategy RPGPoor odds26 devs · median $10k · 60 announced
  9. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $9.9k · 60 announced
  10. + Card BattlerPoor odds12 devs · median $8.2k · 29 announced
  11. + RoguelitePoor odds42 devs · median $7.9k · 101 announced
  12. + RoguelikePoor odds37 devs · median $7.8k · 102 announced

All 69 pairs on the Hex Grid page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Alina of the Arena 2022 · $1.6M In Falsus 2026 · $945k TerraScape 2024 · $930k Faeria 2017 · $912k Hexarchy 2023 · $738k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Alina of the Arena older $14.99 3,577 91% 107k $1.6M (exactly $1,608,577) PINIX
In Falsus $39.99 788 89% 24k $945k (exactly $945,364) lowiro
TerraScape older $14.99 2,068 88% 62k $930k (exactly $929,980) Bitfall Studios
Faeria older $19.99 1,520 83% 46k $912k (exactly $911,544) Abrakam Entertainment SA
Hexarchy older $19.99 1,231 83% 37k $738k (exactly $738,231) Main Tank Software
WARTILE older $19.99 601 75% 18k $360k (exactly $360,420) Playwood Project
Super Bullet Break older $19.99 434 81% 13k $260k (exactly $260,270) BeXide Inc.
Feed the Scorchpot $14.99 371 87% 11k $167k (exactly $166,839) Moravian
Rogue Hex $19.99 260 89% 7.8k $156k (exactly $155,922) Topstitch Games
Oaken older $19.99 239 79% 7.2k $143k (exactly $143,328) Laki Studios
Hive Blight · EA $12.49 367 94% 11k $138k (exactly $137,515) OptizOnion
Conquest Tactics : Realm of Sin $14.99 162 69% 4.9k $73k (exactly $72,851) Singular Sunshine Studios
Clonizer $14.99 146 82% 4.4k $66k (exactly $65,656) Juicy Plume
The Dead Await $12.99 108 67% 3.2k $42k (exactly $42,088) Shotx
Wild City $9.99 63 88% 1.9k $19k (exactly $18,881) Monka Studios
Flawed Tactics $9.99 59 89% 1.8k $18k (exactly $17,682) Flawed Games
Sigilfarer: A Dice-Rolling Roguelite $11.99 33 72% 990 $12k (exactly $11,870) Viabo Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.