Do I ship it?

GamesTrading Card GameTrading Card Game + Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Trading Card Game?

Trading Card Game + Dark Fantasy

Only 11 developers shipped a paid Dark-Fantasy Trading Card Game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Unsealed Pact, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 5 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 68 more are announced, ×7.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $420 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 9 developers shipped in the last year and 68 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 68 announced, ×7.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Trading Card Game + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $119 → $0 → $419 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Trading Card Game + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $419 (exactly $419)
Top 25% $719 (exactly $719)
Top 5% $1.2k (exactly $1,169)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 51
Announced 68
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 350% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 51%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Trading Card Game
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Trading Card Game
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 8 games average 70% positive over 33 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $420, 1 in 4 over $710, 1 in 20 over $1.1k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 4 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 68 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×7.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Trading Card Game with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Immersive SimStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  2. + SandboxFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  3. + Inventory ManagementFair21 devs · median $1.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Procedural GenerationPoor odds10 devs · median $10k · 26 announced
  5. + TradingPoor odds16 devs · median $10k · 36 announced
  6. + Life SimPoor odds18 devs · median $10k · 21 announced
  7. + CollectathonPoor odds26 devs · median $6.3k · 41 announced
  8. + HistoricalPoor odds15 devs · median $6.1k · 25 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds11 devs · median $4.9k · 25 announced
  10. + Auto BattlerPoor odds22 devs · median $3.4k · 27 announced
  11. + Roguelike DeckbuilderPoor odds24 devs · median $3.4k · 38 announced
  12. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $3.1k · 36 announced

All 69 pairs on the Trading Card Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Aeon's End older $14.99 438 82% 13k $197k (exactly $196,969) Handelabra Games Inc.
VEmpire - The Kings of Darkness older $13.99 16 62% 480 $6.7k (exactly $6,715) Wolfgang Lueger
Conjury older $4.99 33 96% 990 $4.9k (exactly $4,940) Super Punch Games
Satan's Puzzle 2 older $1.99 40 95% 1.2k $2.4k (exactly $2,388) Silvestre Gore Art
SexStone older $5.99 9 66% 270 $1.6k (exactly $1,617) Entropy Digital Entertainment
Unsealed Pact $12.99 3 33% 90 $1.2k (exactly $1,169) Rockbench Studio
逝去之物 Passenger:Gone · EA $1.99 16 75% 480 $955 (exactly $955) MoonAssociation
Rampallians · EA $7.99 3 66% 90 $719 (exactly $719) Electric Brain Games
Dire - Flesh and Phobia · EA older $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) 2weak
Ancient Sacrifice older $4.99 4 25% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Jagernaut
Necrocat $3.99 5 60% 150 $598 (exactly $598) Noct Paradox
Tenebrix · EA $15.99 1 0% 30 $480 (exactly $480) ColdForge Games
DDOL $6.99 2 100% 60 $419 (exactly $419) MOMO
Creature Tamer · EA $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) Shadow Form Games
Tarot $1.99 2 100% 60 $119 (exactly $119) Knights of Terminus
Warmongers · EA $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Good Game Studio
Forsaken $14.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Recoil Mojo

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.