Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Sports game?

Sports + Dark Fantasy

Only 15 developers shipped a Dark-Fantasy Sports game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Skate Story, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 8 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $89; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×2610 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 8 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 8 announced, ×0.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $12k → $269 → $900 → $2.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $89 (exactly $89)
Median $900 (exactly $900)
Top 25% $2.5k (exactly $2,545)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,638,980)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 35
Announced 8
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 96% positive over 2,795 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $89, median $900, 1 in 4 over $2.5k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $89. All of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 8 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Blood Bowl 2: Legendary Edition (Classic) older $29.99 7,077 78% 212k $6.4M (exactly $6,367,177) Cyanide Studios
Blood Bowl 3 older $29.99 3,940 51% 118k $3.5M (exactly $3,544,818) Cyanide Studio
Skate Story $19.99 2,733 96% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,638,980) by Sam Eng
House of Detention older $0.99 8,413 91% 252k $250k (exactly $249,866) Aniki, Male Union ♂
Mister Furry: Hot Muscles older $0.99 2,576 92% 77k $77k (exactly $76,507) Red Six Development, Male Union
Dungeon Deathball older $11.99 193 95% 5.8k $69k (exactly $69,422) Matt Glanville
Please FUCK ME my SEXY neighbor older $19.99 20 40% 600 $12k (exactly $11,994) Studio next door VR
Last Devil - Family Friendly older $10.99 35 57% 1.1k $12k (exactly $11,540) ado, Sand Traveler
Ironblood · EA $19.99 7 71% 210 $4.2k (exactly $4,198) Jack Wilds
Maniac Path 4 $9.99 11 100% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Gamesforgames
Monster Yoga 👉👌 $4.99 17 82% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) TheBigO Games
Rough Rivals $5.99 10 100% 300 $1.8k (exactly $1,797) Constantin Roussel
Guild Manager $9.99 4 25% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Benjamin King
Bashing Brutal $7.99 5 60% 150 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) Lema Games
GameSyndicates $29.99 1 100% 30 $900 (exactly $900) GameSyndicates
Voodoo Pin $2.99 6 83% 180 $538 (exactly $538) Type-B
Sol Divide $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Zerodiv

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.