Do I ship it?

GamesGamblingGambling + Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Gambling game?

Gambling + Dark Fantasy

Only 17 developers shipped a Dark-Fantasy Gambling game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Slots & Daggers, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 35 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $210 in the last 2 years and $210 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 15 developers shipped in the last year and 35 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 35 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Gambling + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.7k → $0 (still earning) → $90 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Gambling + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $210 (exactly $210)
Top 25% $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 5% $1.8M (exactly $1,778,814)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 27
Announced 35
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 650% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Gambling
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Gambling; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Card Battler, Deckbuilding, Strategy
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $7.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $7.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 7,512 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $210, 1 in 4 over $1.0k, 1 in 20 over $1.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 35 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Gambling with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds11 devs · median $5.7k · 9 announced
  2. + Dungeon CrawlerFair16 devs · median $7.0k · 17 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair16 devs · median $5.7k · 12 announced
  4. + Online Co-OpFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Co-opFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 32 announced
  6. + FPSFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  7. + Life SimFair28 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  8. + SandboxFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Female ProtagonistFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 10 announced
  10. + Multiple EndingsFair30 devs · median $1.8k · 42 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair96 devs · median $1.3k · 129 announced
  12. + MysteryFair23 devs · median $1.2k · 26 announced

All 71 pairs on the Gambling page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Slots & Daggers $7.99 7,421 93% 223k $1.8M (exactly $1,778,814) Friedemann
Sinsations older $24.99 43 93% 1.3k $32k (exactly $32,237) Frigid Delights Studios LLC
Knock on Fate:The Guardian Pusher $5.99 58 87% 1.7k $10k (exactly $10,423) 刚正面的红领巾
Poker Dungeon : Joker's Madness · EA older $8.99 21 90% 630 $5.7k (exactly $5,664) fishbone games
Another World - Thought Taboo older $4.99 20 85% 600 $3.0k (exactly $2,994) Ashwind
Blackjack Wars $6.99 8 62% 240 $1.7k (exactly $1,678) Process Games
Tears of the Maker $5.00 8 100% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,200) 8-Bit Waves
DIMENGUARD $4.99 7 100% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) RayMag
Suki Suki Love $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) 0_skailer_0
Chimera Circuit $4.99 3 66% 90 $449 (exactly $449) BLYTHE
The Tower of 21 $3.99 2 100% 60 $239 (exactly $239) GingersoftGames
LOST ALTR $6.99 1 100% 30 $210 (exactly $210) ALTER-BOY
Zaraq $3.99 1 0% 30 $120 (exactly $120) Pixel Crate Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.