Do I ship it?

Games › Top-Down Shooter › Top-Down Shooter + Crime

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crime Top-Down Shooter?

Top-Down Shooter + Crime

Of 20 developers who shipped a Crime Top-Down Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 44 more are announced, ×4.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 9 developers shipped in the last year and 44 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 44 announced, ×4.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Top-Down Shooter + Crime
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.0k → $298 → $104k → $356 → $359 → $127k (still earning) → $179 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Top-Down Shooter + Crime: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $9.0k (exactly $8,997)
Top 5% $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 60
Announced 44
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Crime
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Top-Down Shooter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Combat, Shooter
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 3D, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 8,769 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $360, 1 in 4 over $8.9k, 1 in 20 over $7.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 44 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Top-Down Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + VampiresFair16 devs · median $3.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Turn-Based StrategyFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  3. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 15 announced
  4. + IdlerFair24 devs · median $748 · 30 announced
  5. + ArcheryFair9 devs · median $359 · 11 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds12 devs · median $6.5k · 28 announced
  7. + Tactical RPGPoor odds12 devs · median $5.5k · 16 announced
  8. + Action RTSPoor odds14 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  9. + HistoricalPoor odds18 devs · median $3.3k · 24 announced
  10. + ModernPoor odds13 devs · median $3.3k · 19 announced
  11. + CraftingPoor odds45 devs · median $3.1k · 125 announced
  12. + DystopianPoor odds24 devs · median $3.1k · 92 announced

All 150 pairs on the Top-Down Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

The Precinct 2025 · $7.1M Police Stories 2019 · $4.7M Intravenous 2 2024 · $2.4M Intravenous 2021 · $1.7M American Fugitive 2019 · $1.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Precinct $29.99 7,837 87% 235k $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) Fallen Tree Games Ltd
Police Stories older $19.99 7,893 85% 237k $4.7M (exactly $4,733,432) HypeTrain Digital
Intravenous 2 older $19.99 4,069 95% 122k $2.4M (exactly $2,440,179) Explosive Squat Games
Intravenous older $19.99 2,872 91% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,722,338) Explosive Squat Games
American Fugitive older $19.99 1,966 77% 59k $1.2M (exactly $1,179,010) Fallen Tree Games Ltd
Rustler (Grand Theft Horse) older $24.99 1,227 78% 37k $920k (exactly $919,882) Jutsu Games
Shakedown: Hawaii older $19.99 645 90% 19k $387k (exactly $386,806) Vblank Entertainment, Inc.
Jackal $14.99 596 88% 18k $268k (exactly $268,021) Transhuman Design
PROHIBEAST $34.99 121 57% 3.6k $127k (exactly $127,014) SUPER AC
Yet Another Fantasy Title (YAFT) older $19.99 181 59% 5.4k $109k (exactly $108,546) Atomic Wolf
Glitchpunk $19.99 174 47% 5.2k $104k (exactly $104,348) Dark Lord
PIZZA WESTERN 🍕 $29.99 10 90% 300 $9.0k (exactly $8,997) Lola Fisher
Bullet Noir $11.99 13 100% 390 $4.7k (exactly $4,676) WOLCEN Studio
Cartoon Crime · EA $4.99 6 100% 180 $898 (exactly $898) BuBa Games
Snake Eyes $2.99 8 100% 240 $718 (exactly $718) Jake Slutzky, Amber Cardamone
Nephew's Vendetta $5.99 2 100% 60 $359 (exactly $359) Colossus Game Studio
Clippy Commando $5.99 2 100% 60 $359 (exactly $359) Daniel Harnden

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.