Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Creature Collector

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Creature Collector Sports game?

Sports + Creature Collector

Only 19 developers shipped a Creature Collector Sports game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Cast n Chill, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 17 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×4.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $3.7M, ×6003 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 17 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 17 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Creature Collector
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $57k → $14k → $2.8k → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Creature Collector: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $2.9k (exactly $2,875)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,072)
Top 5% $3.8M (exactly $3,769,835)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 48
Announced 17
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Creature Collector
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, Creature Collector; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Character Customization, Desktop Companion
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Cozy
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 10,718 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $2.9k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $3.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 7 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 17 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cast n Chill $14.99 8,383 94% 251k $3.8M (exactly $3,769,835) Wombat Brawler
Beastieball · EA $24.99 1,483 97% 44k $1.1M (exactly $1,111,805) Wishes Ultd.
LurkBait Twitch Fishing older $7.00 548 87% 16k $115k (exactly $115,080) BLAMCAM Interactive
PropHunter · EA older $3.99 917 79% 28k $110k (exactly $109,765) Alone Fox Games
Duck Life 9: The Flock older $9.99 190 83% 5.7k $57k (exactly $56,943) Wix Games
Claw Machine Sim older $6.99 238 94% 7.1k $50k (exactly $49,909) Unechte Sachen
Duck Life 4 older $4.99 261 86% 7.8k $39k (exactly $39,072) Wix Games
Desktop Fishing $3.49 333 91% 10k $35k (exactly $34,865) Ostend Games
Basketboy's Adventure $9.99 78 78% 2.3k $23k (exactly $23,377) greenteagame1
PuckOFF older $19.99 25 64% 750 $15k (exactly $14,992) Kuura Playhouse
Witchy Wonderland $4.99 94 94% 2.8k $14k (exactly $14,072) Cow Games
Lucinda Green's Equestrian Challenge $4.99 72 72% 2.2k $11k (exactly $10,778) IR Gurus Interactive Pty Ltd.
MEMOLOGY: ITALIAN BRAINROT $0.99 148 91% 4.4k $4.4k (exactly $4,396) hannibalnotdead, Gamesforfarm
Easy Running $8.99 12 83% 360 $3.2k (exactly $3,236) LUO WENJUN
Gladiator Fights $0.99 99 86% 3.0k $2.9k (exactly $2,940) ZERO5GAMES
Camelbirds $5.99 16 81% 480 $2.9k (exactly $2,875) 5Centov

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.