Do I ship it?

GamesTrading Card GameTrading Card Game + Crafting

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Trading Card Game?

Trading Card Game + Crafting

Only 10 developers shipped a Crafting Trading Card Game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, KOTAMON: My Sis Found A Super-Rare Card In Her Cereal Box, So I Became A Garbage Man To Find The Entire Collection And Earn $1,000,000, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $520k, ×831 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 24 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 24 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Trading Card Game + Crafting
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $14k → $16k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Trading Card Game + Crafting: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,397)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $16,147)
Top 5% $522k (exactly $521,943)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 37
Announced 24
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 300% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 38%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Trading Card Game
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Trading Card Game, Crafting
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 74% positive over 4,226 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $520k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 6 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Trading Card Game with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Immersive SimStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  2. + SandboxFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  3. + Inventory ManagementFair21 devs · median $1.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Procedural GenerationPoor odds10 devs · median $10k · 26 announced
  5. + TradingPoor odds16 devs · median $10k · 36 announced
  6. + Life SimPoor odds18 devs · median $10k · 21 announced
  7. + CollectathonPoor odds26 devs · median $6.3k · 41 announced
  8. + HistoricalPoor odds15 devs · median $6.1k · 25 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds11 devs · median $4.9k · 25 announced
  10. + Auto BattlerPoor odds22 devs · median $3.4k · 27 announced
  11. + Roguelike DeckbuilderPoor odds24 devs · median $3.4k · 38 announced
  12. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $3.1k · 36 announced

All 69 pairs on the Trading Card Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Aces & Adventures older $19.99 2,220 89% 67k $1.3M (exactly $1,331,334) Triple.B.Titles
KOTAMON: My Sis Found A Super-Rare Card In Her Cereal Box, So I Became A Garbage Man To Find The Entire Collection And Earn $1,000,000 $6.99 2,489 81% 75k $522k (exactly $521,943) KotaMota Games
Doodle God older $14.99 1,030 77% 31k $463k (exactly $463,191) JoyBits Ltd.
My Wife Threw Out My Card Collection (So I Bought a Dump to Find Them All) ⭐ $7.95 1,601 65% 48k $382k (exactly $381,838) Polnoch
Doodle Kingdom older $8.99 129 45% 3.9k $35k (exactly $34,791) JoyBits Ltd.
Dig for TCG Cards With Your Friends $6.99 77 44% 2.3k $16k (exactly $16,147) 3 Rare Devs
Card Artisan $12.99 36 91% 1.1k $14k (exactly $14,029) Fullen Games
Royal Merchant older $4.99 75 62% 2.3k $11k (exactly $11,228) Badim
The Idle older $6.99 13 30% 390 $2.7k (exactly $2,726) iclick games
Idle Colors $7.99 10 30% 300 $2.4k (exactly $2,397) Like Idle Games
Idle Income $5.99 8 37% 240 $1.4k (exactly $1,438) Trinket Games
Rise of the Settlement · EA $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Luki
Block Sprawl $14.99 1 100% 30 $450 (exactly $450) Koding Nights
Apocalypse: The Hunger $1.99 2 0% 60 $119 (exactly $119) Bit Boy Games
Boss Key · EA $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Institute of Card Game Studies

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.