Do I ship it?

GamesSwordplaySwordplay + Crafting

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Swordplay game?

Swordplay + Crafting

Only 12 developers shipped a Crafting Swordplay game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Arken Age, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 47 more are announced, ×12 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $15k against a market of $630. 47 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 24.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 47 announced, ×12 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Swordplay + Crafting
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $809 → $354k → $156k
Outcomes for Swordplay + Crafting: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $15k (exactly $15,109)
Top 25% $354k (exactly $354,423)
Top 5% $803k (exactly $802,599)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 48
Announced 47
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $13.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 50% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 25%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Swordplay
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Swordplay, Crafting
Price point
$13.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 2,258 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $15k, 1 in 4 over $350k, 1 in 20 over $800k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 5 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 47 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×12 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Swordplay with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelFair13 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Strategy RPGFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced
  4. + Auto BattlerFair13 devs · median $1.1k · 8 announced
  5. + DeckbuildingFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  6. + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  7. + SamuraiPoor odds12 devs · median $80k · 21 announced
  8. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 22 announced
  9. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds39 devs · median $13k · 79 announced
  10. + FightingPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  11. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $12k · 53 announced
  12. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 26 announced

All 115 pairs on the Swordplay page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Kenshi older $29.99 98,451 95% 3.0M $89M (exactly $88,576,365) Lo-Fi Games
Last Oasis · EA older $29.99 20,443 63% 613k $18M (exactly $18,392,567) Donkey Crew
Mortal Online 2 older $39.99 11,103 59% 333k $13M (exactly $13,320,269) Star Vault AB
Arken Age $39.99 669 90% 20k $803k (exactly $802,599) VitruviusVR
Forgotten Seas $24.99 475 75% 14k $356k (exactly $356,108) Pangea Game Studios
Medieval Blacksmith $19.99 591 79% 18k $354k (exactly $354,423) OGO Play
VALHALL: Harbinger · EA older $29.99 360 62% 11k $324k (exactly $323,892) Blackrose Arts
Dredgers older $11.99 471 88% 14k $169k (exactly $169,419) Pirate-Rob
Captain Bones : A Pirate's Journey $14.99 348 79% 10k $156k (exactly $156,496) World of Poly
Eden Island older $14.99 232 58% 7.0k $104k (exactly $104,330) Moon Studio
The Last King · EA $14.99 122 79% 3.7k $55k (exactly $54,863) Mayawi software
One More Delve $13.99 36 66% 1.1k $15k (exactly $15,109) ATVR
The Last Nordic Tribe $5.99 11 90% 330 $2.0k (exactly $1,977) Never Say Never
Merge Guard $3.99 3 66% 90 $359 (exactly $359) Raido Studios
Path of Clicks $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) FANE Studio
Mogradiz $7.99 1 100% 30 $240 (exactly $240) Vyrnetic

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.