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Should I ship a Choose Your Own Adventure Swordplay game?
Swordplay + Choose Your Own Adventure
Only 15 developers shipped a Choose Your Own Adventure Swordplay game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Ludus Magnatus: Gladiator Manager Simulator, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 31 more are announced, ×5.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×2.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $450k, ×731 the market median. Revenue is up 1935% on the market; 31 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $539 (exactly $539) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.4k (exactly $1,438) |
| Top 25% | $52k (exactly $52,183) |
| Top 5% | $459k (exactly $458,816) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 15 |
| Released games | 48 |
| Announced | 31 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1935% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Swordplay
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Choose Your Own Adventure
- effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Swordplay, Choose Your Own Adventure
- Price point
- $8.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 10 games average 79% positive over 1,568 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 9 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 31 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Swordplay with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Visual NovelFair
- + Strategy RPGFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + DeckbuildingFair
- + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + JRPGPoor odds
- + Female ProtagonistPoor odds
- + FightingPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + Base BuildingPoor odds
Comparable games
Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2018 · $129M 
Way of the Samurai 4 2015 · $1.5M 
Blood and Gold: Caribbean! 2015 · $712k 
Way of the Samurai 3 2016 · $522k 
Ludus Magnatus: Gladiator Manager Simulator 2026 · EA · $459k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Kingdom Come: Deliverance | older | $29.99 | 143,303 83% | 4.3M | $129M (exactly $128,929,709) | Warhorse Studios |
| | Way of the Samurai 4 | older | $24.99 | 1,939 76% | 58k | $1.5M (exactly $1,453,668) | ACQUIRE Corp. |
| | Blood and Gold: Caribbean! | older | $19.99 | 1,188 59% | 36k | $712k (exactly $712,444) | Snowbird Games |
| | Way of the Samurai 3 | older | $19.99 | 871 73% | 26k | $522k (exactly $522,339) | ACQUIRE Corp. |
| | Ludus Magnatus: Gladiator Manager Simulator | · EA | $24.99 | 612 81% | 18k | $459k (exactly $458,816) | Contec Games |
 | Medieval Blacksmith | $19.99 | 591 79% | 18k | $354k (exactly $354,423) | OGO Play | |
 | The Divine Invasion | older | $14.99 | 690 79% | 21k | $310k (exactly $310,293) | Whale Rock Games |
 | Korea Dynasty (조선메타실록) | · EA older | $23.99 | 267 72% | 8.0k | $192k (exactly $192,160) | Happy Daram Inc. |
 | Valthirian Arc: Hero School Story | older | $14.99 | 247 59% | 7.4k | $111k (exactly $111,076) | Agate |
 | DragonStone Revenge | $14.99 | 146 60% | 4.4k | $66k (exactly $65,656) | Entropy Digital Entertainment | |
 | Togainu no Chi: True Blood NITRO ARCHIVE | $29.99 | 58 98% | 1.7k | $52k (exactly $52,183) | NITRO PLUS, NITRO CHiRAL | |
 | Ladies, Don’t Tempt My Immortality | $10.99 | 57 89% | 1.7k | $19k (exactly $18,793) | 蒸汽满满工作室 | |
 | Specters of the Deep | $11.99 | 34 91% | 1.0k | $12k (exactly $12,230) | Choice of Games | |
 | Bloodface | $7.99 | 50 70% | 1.5k | $12k (exactly $11,985) | Iron Forge Games | |
 | Samurai's Odyssey | · EA | $7.99 | 6 66% | 180 | $1.4k (exactly $1,438) | CODEUM GAMES, 11Gen |
 | Games of the Monarch's Eye | $5.99 | 8 25% | 240 | $1.4k (exactly $1,438) | Choice of Games | |
 | Stronghold: Caverns of Sorcery | $6.99 | 6 33% | 180 | $1.3k (exactly $1,258) | Choice of Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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