Do I ship it?

GamesChoose Your Own AdventureChoose Your Own Adventure + LGBTQ+

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an LGBTQ+ Choose Your Own Adventure game?

Choose Your Own Adventure + LGBTQ+

Of 241 developers who shipped an LGBTQ+ Choose Your Own Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 316 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.8k, ×66 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $430k, ×3654 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 316 games are announced against 137 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 65.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 316 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choose Your Own Adventure + LGBTQ+
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 241
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $11k → $18k → $13k → $19k → $9.9k → $11k → $5.1k (still earning) → $2.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choose Your Own Adventure + LGBTQ+: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 241
Bottom 30% $2.1k (exactly $2,098)
Median $7.8k (exactly $7,796)
Top 25% $42k (exactly $41,958)
Top 5% $435k (exactly $434,826)
Developers, 2 yr 241
Released games 905
Announced 316
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
LGBTQ+
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Choose Your Own Adventure; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Choices Matter, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 257,514 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.1k, median $7.8k, 1 in 4 over $41k, 1 in 20 over $430k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.1k. 7 in 10 of the 165 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 316 games are announced against 137 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choose Your Own Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds23 devs · median $3.3k · 18 announced
  2. + FMVFair79 devs · median $54k · 74 announced
  3. + FlightFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  4. + SportsFair38 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced
  5. + Word GameFair55 devs · median $1.4k · 65 announced
  6. + MilitaryFair23 devs · median $898 · 24 announced
  7. + Score AttackFair14 devs · median $898 · 11 announced
  8. + IdlerFair41 devs · median $718 · 36 announced
  9. + GamblingFair10 devs · median $494 · 14 announced
  10. + Local MultiplayerFair13 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  11. + 3D FighterLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  12. + NavalPoor odds9 devs · median $14k · 16 announced

All 198 pairs on the Choose Your Own Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dispatch $29.99 174,624 97% 5.2M $157M (exactly $157,109,213) AdHoc Studio
Magical Girl Witch Trials $29.99 29,869 96% 896k $27M (exactly $26,873,139) Acacia, Re,AER
Life is Strange: True Colors older $59.99 12,360 88% 371k $22M (exactly $22,244,292) Deck Nine
Sultan's Game $24.99 25,061 93% 752k $19M (exactly $18,788,232) Double Cross
Life is Strange: Before the Storm older $16.99 33,504 93% 1.0M $17M (exactly $17,076,989) Deck Nine, Feral Interactive (Mac), Fer… (Deck Nine, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Life is Strange: Double Exposure $49.99 7,842 68% 235k $12M (exactly $11,760,647) Deck Nine Games
House Party older $24.99 13,968 85% 419k $10M (exactly $10,471,810) Eek! Games, LLC
The Walking Dead: The Final Season older $19.99 17,447 94% 523k $10M (exactly $10,462,966) Telltale Games
Yes, Your Grace older $19.99 12,571 87% 377k $7.5M (exactly $7,538,829) Brave At Night
The Great Ace Attorney Chronicles older $39.99 5,113 93% 153k $6.1M (exactly $6,134,066) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Date Everything! $29.99 6,629 93% 199k $6.0M (exactly $5,964,111) Sassy Chap Games
Life is Strange: Reunion $39.99 4,535 89% 136k $5.4M (exactly $5,440,640) Deck Nine Games
Love Curse: Find Your Soulmate $14.00 3,275 95% 98k $1.4M (exactly $1,375,500) Xso
Yes, Your Grace 2: Snowfall $24.99 1,488 76% 45k $1.1M (exactly $1,115,554) Brave At Night
Class of '09: The Flip Side $9.99 3,356 57% 101k $1.0M (exactly $1,005,793) SBN3
No Sleep For Kaname Date - From AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES $39.99 835 79% 25k $1.0M (exactly $1,001,750) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.