Do I ship it?

Games3D Fighter3D Fighter + Choose Your Own Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choose Your Own Adventure 3D Fighter?

3D Fighter + Choose Your Own Adventure

Only 17 developers shipped a Choose Your Own Adventure 3D Fighter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Ludus Magnatus: Gladiator Manager Simulator, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced.

Verdict: long shot, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×0.7 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, but 1 in 20 cleared $450k, ×306 the market median. Revenue is up 150% on the market; 20 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 150% on the market, 20 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Fighter + Choose Your Own Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $659 → $900 → $1.2k → $1.0k → $299 → $598 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Fighter + Choose Your Own Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,040)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,190)
Top 5% $459k (exactly $458,816)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 55
Announced 20
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 150% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · 3D hit volumes plus the fighting-game tuning load
Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
3D Fighter, Choose Your Own Adventure; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, RPG
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 968 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $450k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. All of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Fighter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ManagementFair11 devs · median $3.1k · 15 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair34 devs · median $2.1k · 42 announced
  3. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.2k · 3 announced
  4. + RhythmLong shot9 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  5. + CollectathonLong shot15 devs · median $598 · 6 announced
  6. + ModernLong shot12 devs · median $539 · 10 announced
  7. + SimulationLong shot83 devs · median $538 · 96 announced
  8. + FightingPoor odds55 devs · median $5.0k · 87 announced
  9. + WrestlingPoor odds11 devs · median $2.3k · 21 announced
  10. + Life SimPoor odds10 devs · median $2.1k · 21 announced
  11. + HistoricalPoor odds14 devs · median $1.6k · 25 announced
  12. + Spectacle fighterPoor odds67 devs · median $1.5k · 112 announced

All 126 pairs on the 3D Fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ludus Magnatus: Gladiator Manager Simulator · EA $24.99 612 81% 18k $459k (exactly $458,816) Contec Games
Kromlech · EA $29.99 136 65% 4.1k $122k (exactly $122,359) Perun Creative
Whisper Trip older $4.99 90 60% 2.7k $13k (exactly $13,473) Walnut LLC
Wild Alone $10.99 38 47% 1.1k $13k (exactly $12,529) Wild Alone 21
Bloodface $7.99 50 70% 1.5k $12k (exactly $11,985) Iron Forge Games
Weekend Warriors MMA older $5.99 65 80% 2.0k $12k (exactly $11,680) MDickie
Wasteland with Robots $9.99 34 94% 1.0k $10k (exactly $10,190) Gamesforgames
Fairspace older $8.99 28 64% 840 $7.6k (exactly $7,552) Sub Orbital Software
Soulsland older $4.99 32 59% 960 $4.8k (exactly $4,790) Tero Lunkka, Valkeala Software, NTStudi… (Tero Lunkka, Valkeala Software, NTStudios)
Dark Days : Devil Hunt older $12.99 8 37% 240 $3.1k (exactly $3,118) Mavi Game Studios
Big Theft Valkeala $2.99 17 76% 510 $1.5k (exactly $1,525) Tero Lunkka, Valkeala Software, Kendall… (Tero Lunkka, Valkeala Software, Kendall Studios)
Assassin Of Goblin $3.99 12 66% 360 $1.4k (exactly $1,436) Saylor Games
Pulse $39.99 1 100% 30 $1.2k (exactly $1,200) Lebedev Artem
MEMOLOGY: ESCAPE OF MEMES $0.99 35 91% 1.1k $1.0k (exactly $1,040) Gamesforfarm, Piece Of Voxel
The Memological Dungeon $0.99 33 90% 990 $980 (exactly $980) Gamesforfarm

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.