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Should I ship a Naval Choose Your Own Adventure game?
Choose Your Own Adventure + Naval
Only 9 developers shipped a Naval Choose Your Own Adventure game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Tides of Tomorrow 🌊, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $14k, ×22 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $460k, ×746 the market median. Revenue is up 26105% on the market; 16 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $629 (exactly $629) |
|---|---|
| Median | $14k (exactly $13,793) |
| Top 25% | $92k (exactly $91,849) |
| Top 5% | $469k (exactly $468,744) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 9 |
| Released games | 31 |
| Announced | 16 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $15.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 26105% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Choose Your Own Adventure
- effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
- Naval
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Choose Your Own Adventure
- Price point
- $15.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.
The top 10 games average 78% positive over 20,690 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $630. 16 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Choose Your Own Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + RhythmStrong odds
- + FMVFair
- + FlightFair
- + SportsFair
- + Word GameFair
- + MilitaryFair
- + Score AttackFair
- + IdlerFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Local MultiplayerFair
- + 3D FighterLong shot
- + Time ManipulationPoor odds
Comparable games
Pixel Piracy 2014 · $2.6M 
Sid Meier's Pirates! 2005 · $1.9M 
Rule the Waves 3 2023 · $1.0M 
Abandon Ship 2019 · $863k 
Windward 2015 · $800k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Pixel Piracy | older | $14.99 | 5,713 65% | 171k | $2.6M (exactly $2,569,136) | Vitali Kirpu |
| | Sid Meier's Pirates! | older | $9.99 | 6,198 94% | 186k | $1.9M (exactly $1,857,541) | Firaxis Games |
| | Rule the Waves 3 | older | $39.99 | 855 87% | 26k | $1.0M (exactly $1,025,744) | Naval Warfare Simulations |
| | Abandon Ship | older | $24.99 | 1,151 71% | 35k | $863k (exactly $862,905) | Fireblade Software |
| | Windward | older | $9.99 | 2,668 79% | 80k | $800k (exactly $799,600) | Tasharen Entertainment Inc. |
 | Blood and Gold: Caribbean! | older | $19.99 | 1,188 59% | 36k | $712k (exactly $712,444) | Snowbird Games |
 | Corsairs Legacy - Pirate Action RPG & Sea Battles | · EA older | $19.99 | 1,094 74% | 33k | $656k (exactly $656,072) | Mauris, Tech-5 UG |
 | Tides of Tomorrow 🌊 | $29.99 | 521 86% | 16k | $469k (exactly $468,744) | Digixart | |
 | Nantucket | older | $17.99 | 782 78% | 23k | $422k (exactly $422,045) | Picaresque Games |
 | Rise of Piracy | · EA | $15.99 | 520 77% | 16k | $249k (exactly $249,444) | IrishJohnGames |
 | Lost & Found: A This Bed We Made Story | $6.99 | 438 92% | 13k | $92k (exactly $91,849) | Lowbirth Games | |
 | Sail the Seas | $19.99 | 140 76% | 4.2k | $84k (exactly $83,958) | Viking Game Studio | |
 | Herald: The Interactive Period Drama – Complete Edition | $19.99 | 23 78% | 690 | $14k (exactly $13,793) | Wispfire | |
 | Seven Seas: Adventures | · EA | $24.99 | 8 25% | 240 | $6.0k (exactly $5,998) | Concept Games |
 | Exploration | $6.99 | 3 66% | 90 | $629 (exactly $629) | Software 2000 | |
 | Wake Explorer | $1.99 | 5 100% | 150 | $298 (exactly $298) | Ocelli | |
 | Victoria: La Primera | $5.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Tannhauser Estudio, Notepike |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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