Do I ship it?

GamesFMVFMV + Choose Your Own Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choose Your Own Adventure FMV?

FMV + Choose Your Own Adventure

Of 79 developers who shipped a Choose Your Own Adventure FMV in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 74 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $54k, ×113 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $12k. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 74 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 112.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 74 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FMV + Choose Your Own Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 79
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $47k → $40k → $44k → $175k → $11k → $77k → $44k (still earning) → $115k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FMV + Choose Your Own Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 79
Bottom 30% $11k (exactly $11,394)
Median $54k (exactly $53,514)
Top 25% $143k (exactly $143,410)
Top 5% $815k (exactly $814,884)
Developers, 2 yr 79
Released games 209
Announced 74
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

FMV
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
FMV, Choose Your Own Adventure; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Dating Sim, RPG, Interactive Fiction
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Emotional, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 68,005 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $12k, median $54k, 1 in 4 over $140k, 1 in 20 over $810k.

3 in 10 developers made under $12k. 3 in 10 of the 50 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 74 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FMV with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SurvivalStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Post-apocalypticStrong odds8 devs · median $74k · 5 announced
  3. + StrategyStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  4. + Multiple EndingsStrong odds128 devs · median $65k · 93 announced
  5. + Immersive SimStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  6. + Choices MatterStrong odds108 devs · median $58k · 91 announced
  7. + Dating SimStrong odds148 devs · median $57k · 111 announced
  8. + RomanceStrong odds101 devs · median $56k · 63 announced
  9. + SimulationStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  10. + JRPGStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  11. + Visual NovelStrong odds166 devs · median $54k · 146 announced
  12. + RPGStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced

All 63 pairs on the FMV page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Love Is All Around older $9.99 36,203 93% 1.1M $11M (exactly $10,850,039) intiny
Revenge on gold diggers $6.99 46,610 80% 1.4M $9.8M (exactly $9,774,117) 前方工作室
Not For Broadcast older $24.99 10,337 94% 310k $7.7M (exactly $7,749,649) NotGames
The Operator older $13.99 8,515 91% 255k $3.6M (exactly $3,573,746) Bureau 81
Five Hearts Under One Roof $19.99 5,881 91% 176k $3.5M (exactly $3,526,836) Storytaco
Late Shift older $14.99 7,762 86% 233k $3.5M (exactly $3,490,571) CtrlMovie
Her Story older $9.99 8,367 89% 251k $2.5M (exactly $2,507,590) Sam Barlow
Breakout 13 older $9.99 6,899 87% 207k $2.1M (exactly $2,067,630) ALT Lab
Knowledge, or know Lady older $6.99 8,501 95% 255k $1.8M (exactly $1,782,660) 蒸汽满满工作室
The Centennial Case : A Shijima Story older $49.99 1,033 79% 31k $1.5M (exactly $1,549,190) Square Enix
The Three Kingdoms: Rebirth $19.99 2,564 91% 77k $1.5M (exactly $1,537,631) 玛奇阿朵互娱科技, 山与海工作室
Five Hearts Under One Roof season2 $22.99 2,149 96% 64k $1.5M (exactly $1,482,165) Storytaco
SubZero $9.99 2,719 92% 82k $815k (exactly $814,884) Joy Media Limited
Love is All Around: Echoes of Yesterday $10.99 1,850 81% 56k $610k (exactly $609,945) intiny
极速营救 $9.99 1,860 86% 56k $557k (exactly $557,442) 优映文化, 想象颗粒
我只是想让她们都幸福 $9.99 1,837 97% 55k $551k (exactly $550,549) 心宿影视
Game of Fate 2: A Century's Promise $15.99 1,054 78% 32k $506k (exactly $505,604) KARMAGAME HK LIMITED
Hua Manlou $10.99 1,481 97% 44k $488k (exactly $488,286) 初域游戏

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.