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Should I ship a Choices Matter Swordplay game?
Swordplay + Choices Matter
Only 18 developers shipped a Choices Matter Swordplay game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Kingdom Come: Deliverance II, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 67 more are announced, ×6.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $260M, ×414269 the market median. Revenue is up 3970% on the market; 67 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $359 (exactly $359) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.8k (exactly $1,798) |
| Top 25% | $57k (exactly $56,970) |
| Top 5% | $260M (exactly $260,161,033) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 18 |
| Released games | 65 |
| Announced | 67 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $11.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 3970% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Swordplay
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Swordplay, Choices Matter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Choose Your Own Adventure, Immersive Sim
- Price point
- $11.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
- Art
- 8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, Story Rich
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.
The top 10 games average 93% positive over 146,111 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 67 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Swordplay with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Visual NovelFair
- + Strategy RPGFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + DeckbuildingFair
- + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + JRPGPoor odds
- + Female ProtagonistPoor odds
- + FightingPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + Base BuildingPoor odds
Comparable games
Kingdom Come: Deliverance II 2025 · $260M 
Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2018 · $129M 
Way of the Samurai 4 2015 · $1.5M 
Stories: The Path of Destinies 2016 · $874k 
Blood and Gold: Caribbean! 2015 · $712k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Kingdom Come: Deliverance II | $59.99 | 144,558 93% | 4.3M | $260M (exactly $260,161,033) | Warhorse Studios | |
| | Kingdom Come: Deliverance | older | $29.99 | 143,303 83% | 4.3M | $129M (exactly $128,929,709) | Warhorse Studios |
| | Way of the Samurai 4 | older | $24.99 | 1,939 76% | 58k | $1.5M (exactly $1,453,668) | ACQUIRE Corp. |
| | Stories: The Path of Destinies | older | $14.99 | 1,943 87% | 58k | $874k (exactly $873,767) | Spearhead Games |
| | Blood and Gold: Caribbean! | older | $19.99 | 1,188 59% | 36k | $712k (exactly $712,444) | Snowbird Games |
 | Omensight: Definitive Edition | older | $19.99 | 1,174 88% | 35k | $704k (exactly $704,048) | Spearhead Games |
 | Way of the Samurai 3 | older | $19.99 | 871 73% | 26k | $522k (exactly $522,339) | ACQUIRE Corp. |
 | Ludus Magnatus: Gladiator Manager Simulator | · EA | $24.99 | 612 81% | 18k | $459k (exactly $458,816) | Contec Games |
 | Medieval Blacksmith | $19.99 | 591 79% | 18k | $354k (exactly $354,423) | OGO Play | |
 | Swords of Gurrah | · EA older | $14.99 | 622 78% | 19k | $280k (exactly $279,713) | Devster, LLC |
 | Queen's Blade Re:Build | $27.77 | 93 70% | 2.8k | $77k (exactly $77,478) | SE Mobile and Online Co.,Ltd., C&R… (SE Mobile and Online Co.,Ltd., C&R Creative Studios) | |
 | Trials of Valor | $18.99 | 100 95% | 3.0k | $57k (exactly $56,970) | Armored Goblin | |
 | Lady Death Demonicron | $39.99 | 36 47% | 1.1k | $43k (exactly $43,189) | Art Of Play Interactive | |
 | Adventure of Samsara | $19.99 | 66 89% | 2.0k | $40k (exactly $39,580) | Ilex Games | |
 | Specters of the Deep | $11.99 | 34 91% | 1.0k | $12k (exactly $12,230) | Choice of Games | |
 | Dungeons and Warbands | · EA | $14.99 | 16 56% | 480 | $7.2k (exactly $7,195) | Omer Erenturk |
 | Duil | $11.99 | 5 80% | 150 | $1.8k (exactly $1,798) | JL studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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