Do I ship it?

GamesCard GameCard Game + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Card Game Puzzle game?

Card Game + Puzzle

Of 198 developers who shipped a Card Game Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 206 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $480, ×4.0 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $120. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 206 games are announced against 127 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 206 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Card Game + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 198
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $2.1k → $1.2k → $1.9k → $449 → $1.2k → $475 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Card Game + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 198
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $479 (exactly $479)
Top 25% $4.5k (exactly $4,491)
Top 5% $81k (exactly $81,058)
Developers, 2 yr 198
Released games 645
Announced 206
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Card Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · rules engine and card data
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Card Game, Puzzle; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Deckbuilding, Roguelike
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $13.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 5,344 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $480, 1 in 4 over $4.4k, 1 in 20 over $81k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 92 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 206 games are announced against 127 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Card Game with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SteampunkFair15 devs · median $7.6k · 18 announced
  2. + Immersive SimFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 43 announced
  3. + Inventory ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.6k · 86 announced
  4. + DogsFair11 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  5. + MahjongFair28 devs · median $748 · 24 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair40 devs · median $719 · 54 announced
  7. + GamblingFair126 devs · median $600 · 167 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair62 devs · median $539 · 69 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair17 devs · median $537 · 15 announced
  10. + Board GameFair293 devs · median $479 · 382 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $18k · 48 announced
  12. + LovecraftianPoor odds23 devs · median $16k · 50 announced

All 159 pairs on the Card Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Inscryption older $19.99 135,017 96% 4.1M $81M (exactly $80,969,695) Daniel Mullins Games
Thronebreaker: The Witcher Tales older $19.99 15,665 89% 470k $9.4M (exactly $9,394,300) CD PROJEKT RED
Yu-Gi-Oh! Legacy of the Duelist : Link Evolution older $39.99 3,905 82% 117k $4.7M (exactly $4,684,828) Other Ocean Emeryville
Depersonalization older $19.99 6,041 92% 181k $3.6M (exactly $3,622,788) MeowNature
BOOK OF HOURS older $24.99 4,129 89% 124k $3.1M (exactly $3,095,511) Weather Factory
The Legend of Bum-Bo older $14.99 5,654 80% 170k $2.5M (exactly $2,542,604) Edmund McMillen, James Interactive, Rid… (Edmund McMillen, James Interactive, Ridiculon)
Root older $14.99 5,049 90% 151k $2.3M (exactly $2,270,535) Dire Wolf
Clue/Cluedo: Classic Edition older $16.99 3,096 88% 93k $1.6M (exactly $1,578,031) Marmalade Game Studio Ltd
Pilgrims older $6.99 5,594 96% 168k $1.2M (exactly $1,173,062) Amanita Design
Just Go older $9.99 3,227 92% 97k $967k (exactly $967,132) Studio Amateur
Knights in Tight Spaces $19.99 831 69% 25k $498k (exactly $498,351) Ground Shatter
Pluto $17.99 509 93% 15k $275k (exactly $274,707) Siege Wizard Interactive
Roots Devour $14.99 479 68% 14k $215k (exactly $215,406) Rewinding Games
Dogpile $9.99 708 95% 21k $212k (exactly $212,188) Studio Folly, Toot Games, Foot
Bogos Binted? $5.49 1,134 91% 34k $187k (exactly $186,770) underbadger
Abra-Cooking-Dabra $12.99 250 75% 7.5k $97k (exactly $97,425) Door 407
Technotopia $4.99 599 86% 18k $90k (exactly $89,670) Yustas
Occlude $7.99 348 86% 10k $83k (exactly $83,416) Tributary Games
A Solitaire Mystery $9.99 278 91% 8.3k $83k (exactly $83,317) Hempuli Oy
Sanatorium - A Mental Asylum Simulator $12.99 208 59% 6.2k $81k (exactly $81,058) Zeitglas

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.