Do I ship it?

GamesTrading Card GameTrading Card Game + Card Battler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Card Battler Trading Card Game?

Trading Card Game + Card Battler

Of 131 developers who shipped a paid Card Battler Trading Card Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 4 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 302 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $210k, ×346 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 302 games are announced against 77 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 302 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Trading Card Game + Card Battler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 131
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.7k → $3.4k → $539 → $1.2k → $598 → $599 → $480 (still earning) → $210 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Trading Card Game + Card Battler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 131
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $598 (exactly $598)
Top 25% $6.1k (exactly $6,110)
Top 5% $217k (exactly $217,249)
Developers, 2 yr 131
Released games 410
Announced 302
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 40%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Trading Card Game
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Card Battler
effort 3 / 10 · high · card rules plus simple encounter logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Trading Card Game, Card Battler; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Card Game, Strategy, Deckbuilding
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 7,716 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $600, 1 in 4 over $6.1k, 1 in 20 over $210k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 83 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 302 games are announced against 77 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Trading Card Game with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Immersive SimStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  2. + SandboxFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  3. + Inventory ManagementFair21 devs · median $1.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Procedural GenerationPoor odds10 devs · median $10k · 26 announced
  5. + TradingPoor odds16 devs · median $10k · 36 announced
  6. + Life SimPoor odds18 devs · median $10k · 21 announced
  7. + CollectathonPoor odds26 devs · median $6.3k · 41 announced
  8. + HistoricalPoor odds15 devs · median $6.1k · 25 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds11 devs · median $4.9k · 25 announced
  10. + Auto BattlerPoor odds22 devs · median $3.4k · 27 announced
  11. + Roguelike DeckbuilderPoor odds24 devs · median $3.4k · 38 announced
  12. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $3.1k · 36 announced

All 69 pairs on the Trading Card Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Yu-Gi-Oh! Legacy of the Duelist : Link Evolution older $39.99 3,905 82% 117k $4.7M (exactly $4,684,828) Other Ocean Emeryville
Yu-Gi-Oh! Legacy of the Duelist older $19.99 4,452 83% 134k $2.7M (exactly $2,669,864) Other Ocean Interactive
SUPER DRAGON BALL HEROES WORLD MISSION older $59.99 1,404 82% 42k $2.5M (exactly $2,526,779) Dimps Corporation, SAFARI GAMES Co., Lt… (Dimps Corporation, SAFARI GAMES Co., Ltd.)
Aces & Adventures older $19.99 2,220 89% 67k $1.3M (exactly $1,331,334) Triple.B.Titles
Cardfight!! Vanguard Dear Days 2 $69.99 631 67% 19k $1.3M (exactly $1,324,911) FURYU Corporation, LANCARSE Ltd.
Faeria older $19.99 1,520 83% 46k $912k (exactly $911,544) Abrakam Entertainment SA
Yu-Gi-Oh! EARLY DAYS COLLECTION $49.99 444 76% 13k $666k (exactly $665,867) Digital Eclipse
Dream of Corpse Lady $9.99 2,115 93% 63k $634k (exactly $633,866) HT3 Studio
Card Shop Simulator Multiplayer $11.99 1,609 82% 48k $579k (exactly $578,757) ShaneGame
Nowhere Prophet older $24.99 721 77% 22k $541k (exactly $540,534) Sharkbomb Studios
Rogue Voltage $15.99 593 92% 18k $284k (exactly $284,462) Horizont Computergrafik
Youtubers Life 3 $19.99 468 50% 14k $281k (exactly $280,660) UPLAY Online
Villages & Dungeons $6.99 1,036 91% 31k $217k (exactly $217,249) CaCaFrog Studio
Kādomon: Hyper Auto Battlers $9.99 543 65% 16k $163k (exactly $162,737) Dino Rocket
Culdcept The First $29.99 95 74% 2.9k $85k (exactly $85,472) CITY CONNECTION
Witch and Council : The Card $14.99 182 48% 5.5k $82k (exactly $81,845) G1 Playground

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.