Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Card Battler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Card Battler Sports game?

Sports + Card Battler

Of 31 developers who shipped a Card Battler Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.8k, ×4.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $280k, ×451 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 27 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 27 announced, ×1.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Card Battler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 31
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $109k → $2.8k → $3.6k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Card Battler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 31
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $2.8k (exactly $2,792)
Top 25% $97k (exactly $96,686)
Top 5% $283k (exactly $283,387)
Developers, 2 yr 31
Released games 90
Announced 27
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Card Battler
effort 3 / 10 · high · card rules plus simple encounter logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, Card Battler; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Simulation, Collectathon
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 2,180 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $2.8k, 1 in 4 over $96k, 1 in 20 over $280k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 9 in 10 of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Esports Godfather older $19.99 4,319 90% 130k $2.6M (exactly $2,590,104) Asteroid Game Studio
Out of the Park Baseball 26 $49.99 819 82% 25k $1.2M (exactly $1,228,254) Out of the Park Developments
NUTMEG! A Nostalgic Deckbuilding Football Manager $24.99 378 89% 11k $283k (exactly $283,387) Sumo Digital, Sumo Digital Academy
Canyon of Outlaws $39.99 92 89% 2.8k $110k (exactly $110,372) Javlier P
Iron Carnage $39.99 91 91% 2.7k $109k (exactly $109,173) Andrew Monteiro B
TurboJoy $39.99 90 93% 2.7k $108k (exactly $107,973) TurboJo
Clutchtime™: Basketball Deckbuilder $19.99 180 77% 5.4k $108k (exactly $107,946) Bigosaur
Ammo Bounce $39.99 87 88% 2.6k $104k (exactly $104,374) TurboJo
Double Driver $39.99 84 90% 2.5k $101k (exactly $100,775) FinComBan
Pro Jank Footy $14.99 215 80% 6.5k $97k (exactly $96,686) Powerbomb Games, Tinker Town
Squiggle Football $16.99 144 93% 4.3k $73k (exactly $73,397) Max Barry

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.