Do I ship it?

GamesSwordplaySwordplay + Bullet Time

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Bullet Time Swordplay game?

Swordplay + Bullet Time

Only 13 developers shipped a Bullet Time Swordplay game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Shady Knight, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $480, ×0.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $530k, ×858 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 18 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 18 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Swordplay + Bullet Time
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.8k → $4.7k → $239
Outcomes for Swordplay + Bullet Time: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $478 (exactly $478)
Top 25% $4.7k (exactly $4,676)
Top 5% $539k (exactly $538,531)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 32
Announced 18
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Swordplay
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Bullet Time
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Swordplay, Bullet Time; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Hack and Slash, Action Roguelike
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Difficult, Fast-Paced
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 1,040 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $480, 1 in 4 over $4.6k, 1 in 20 over $530k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Swordplay with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelFair13 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Strategy RPGFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced
  4. + Auto BattlerFair13 devs · median $1.1k · 8 announced
  5. + DeckbuildingFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  6. + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  7. + SamuraiPoor odds12 devs · median $80k · 21 announced
  8. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 22 announced
  9. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds39 devs · median $13k · 79 announced
  10. + FightingPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  11. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $12k · 53 announced
  12. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 26 announced

All 115 pairs on the Swordplay page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Wanted: Dead older $29.99 1,373 67% 41k $1.2M (exactly $1,235,288) Soleil Ltd.
Shady Knight $19.99 898 93% 27k $539k (exactly $538,531) Alexey 'cptnsigh'
BRUTALISTICK VR · EA older $9.99 1,793 94% 54k $537k (exactly $537,362) Kubunautilus
Dredgers older $11.99 471 88% 14k $169k (exactly $169,419) Pirate-Rob
Lithium City older $7.99 286 92% 8.6k $69k (exactly $68,554) Nico Tuason
Red Ronin older $7.99 119 87% 3.6k $29k (exactly $28,524) Wired Dreams Studio
Ninja Legends older $19.99 40 95% 1.2k $24k (exactly $23,988) Coinflip Studios
Sacre Bleu $14.99 46 82% 1.4k $21k (exactly $20,686) Hildring Studio Inc
Bakemono - Demon Brigade Tenmen Unit 01 · EA older $19.99 17 70% 510 $10k (exactly $10,195) SuperSane Games
High Fructose · EA $9.99 29 89% 870 $8.7k (exactly $8,691) Chazak Games
HexWind $11.99 13 100% 390 $4.7k (exactly $4,676) Charm Games
the Shadow of Swallow $3.99 30 76% 900 $3.6k (exactly $3,591) Raine Studio
BROKEN SOUL : Boss Rush $12.99 4 75% 120 $1.6k (exactly $1,559) DoubleJLabs
Geometry raid $1.99 8 87% 240 $478 (exactly $478) RoughStone
Deadcave $0.99 9 100% 270 $267 (exactly $267) cnsmini
COLD BOOT $3.99 2 100% 60 $239 (exactly $239) DIG Games
Blood And Blade $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) ZlabiGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.