Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Bullet Hell

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Bullet Hell Sports game?

Sports + Bullet Hell

Of 24 developers who shipped a Bullet Hell Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 11 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×211 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 11 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 11 announced, ×1.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Bullet Hell
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.4k → $1.9k → $90 → $300 → $23k → $1.5k → $599 (still earning) → $30 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Bullet Hell: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Top 25% $37k (exactly $37,049)
Top 5% $133k (exactly $132,644)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 114
Announced 11
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Bullet Hell
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, Bullet Hell; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Roguelite, Action
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 1,451 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $37k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 11 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Whisker Squadron: Survivor $19.99 485 77% 15k $291k (exactly $290,854) Flippfly LLC
Lake of Creatures $12.49 354 92% 11k $133k (exactly $132,644) ANTENNA GAMES
Master of 4 Swords $39.99 93 93% 2.8k $112k (exactly $111,572) Don BASS
Canyon of Outlaws $39.99 92 89% 2.8k $110k (exactly $110,372) Javlier P
Motordoom older $13.99 174 94% 5.2k $73k (exactly $73,028) Hobo Cat Games
Wand Wars older $11.99 183 96% 5.5k $66k (exactly $65,825) Moonradish Inc.
Sky Racket older $14.99 102 92% 3.1k $46k (exactly $45,869) Double Dash Studios
Vilde $15.99 87 74% 2.6k $42k (exactly $41,734) Chaotic Minds
Freefall '95 $11.99 103 99% 3.1k $37k (exactly $37,049) S-Bend Games
Ball-it Hell older $2.99 368 95% 11k $33k (exactly $33,010) Jamesika
10S FOREVER $7.99 94 98% 2.8k $23k (exactly $22,532) owch
Touhou Volleyball Danmaku $9.99 40 100% 1.2k $12k (exactly $11,988) Compact TH
Citadel Siege $0.99 94 93% 2.8k $2.8k (exactly $2,792) ·
Error_Boy.exe $8.99 9 100% 270 $2.4k (exactly $2,427) WalnutPunch

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.