Do I ship it?

GamesStrategy RPGStrategy RPG + Bullet Hell

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Bullet Hell Strategy RPG?

Strategy RPG + Bullet Hell

Of 40 developers who shipped a Bullet Hell Strategy RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 31 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.0k, ×3.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $300. Revenue is up 350% on the market; 31 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 350% on the market, 31 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy RPG + Bullet Hell
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 40
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $718 → $539 → $3.1k → $2.1k (still earning) → $179 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy RPG + Bullet Hell: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 40
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $2.0k (exactly $1,978)
Top 25% $8.8k (exactly $8,832)
Top 5% $611k (exactly $610,925)
Developers, 2 yr 40
Released games 64
Announced 31
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 350% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Bullet Hell
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy RPG, Bullet Hell; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, RPG, Action Roguelike
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 16,902 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $2.0k, 1 in 4 over $8.8k, 1 in 20 over $610k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 31 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  2. + SwordplayFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + EconomyFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced
  4. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  5. + ConspiracyFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  6. + Shop KeeperFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  7. + 2D PlatformerFair108 devs · median $479 · 113 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair43 devs · median $450 · 47 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds58 devs · median $63k · 76 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds30 devs · median $35k · 41 announced
  11. + 4XPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced
  12. + Martial ArtsPoor odds28 devs · median $18k · 45 announced

All 158 pairs on the Strategy RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Magicraft $15.99 15,051 92% 452k $7.2M (exactly $7,219,965) Wave Games
Fantasy Maiden Wars - DREAM OF THE STRAY DREAMER - $34.99 582 98% 17k $611k (exactly $610,925) さんぼん堂
DreamEcho $11.99 369 79% 11k $133k (exactly $132,729) HotWaterStudio
Godslayer Arena · EA $14.99 257 76% 7.7k $116k (exactly $115,573) Hippo Rider Games
Three Fairies' Hoppin' Flappin' Great Journey! older $17.99 189 84% 5.7k $102k (exactly $102,003) yomogi_soft
Touhou Spell Carnival $49.99 49 77% 1.5k $73k (exactly $73,485) Idea Factory, Compile Heart, STING
最后的仙门 The last Practice Sect older $3.99 504 53% 15k $60k (exactly $60,329) 栖鸾工作室
The Treehouse Man older $9.99 128 87% 3.8k $38k (exactly $38,362) Hunchback Studio
Evolve or Die $4.99 252 98% 7.6k $38k (exactly $37,724) Seal
Bonelords $6.99 94 92% 2.8k $20k (exactly $19,712) Z0 Game Studios
Bronana $4.99 129 68% 3.9k $19k (exactly $19,311) busy bear
Solomon's Boneyard: Hideous Retro Edition $7.99 60 91% 1.8k $14k (exactly $14,382) Raptisoft
NightMare King $4.99 59 83% 1.8k $8.8k (exactly $8,832) Starmoon Cat

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.