Do I ship it?

GamesBullet HellBullet Hell + Dogs

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dog Bullet Hell?

Bullet Hell + Dogs

Only 13 developers shipped a Dog Bullet Hell in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Never Ending Beyond, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 10 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×2.0 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $5.9k, ×13 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 10 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 10 announced, ×1.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Bullet Hell + Dogs
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.7k → $958 → $1.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Bullet Hell + Dogs: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $148 (exactly $148)
Median $958 (exactly $958)
Top 25% $1.4k (exactly $1,436)
Top 5% $6.0k (exactly $5,994)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 31
Announced 10
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 125% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Bullet Hell
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Dogs
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Bullet Hell; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Arcade
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 111 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $960, 1 in 4 over $1.4k, 1 in 20 over $5.9k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 10 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Bullet Hell with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SuperheroStrong odds11 devs · median $3.4k · 7 announced
  2. + FaithFair26 devs · median $17k · 29 announced
  3. + VampiresFair43 devs · median $3.4k · 33 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair24 devs · median $3.4k · 33 announced
  5. + Strategy RPGFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  6. + PiratesFair14 devs · median $2.0k · 20 announced
  7. + CatsFair44 devs · median $1.7k · 59 announced
  8. + HackingFair15 devs · median $1.6k · 17 announced
  9. + Time ManagementFair11 devs · median $1.2k · 15 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair24 devs · median $1.2k · 22 announced
  11. + DemonsFair101 devs · median $1.2k · 125 announced
  12. + Naval CombatFair14 devs · median $1.1k · 16 announced

All 185 pairs on the Bullet Hell page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
スペルトナエル older $8.99 344 97% 10k $93k (exactly $92,777) おまど
QP Shooting - Dangerous!! older $7.99 378 94% 11k $91k (exactly $90,607) Orange_Juice
Putt-Putt® Goes to the Moon older $6.99 184 94% 5.5k $39k (exactly $38,585) Humongous Entertainment
ProtoCorgi older $6.99 157 91% 4.7k $33k (exactly $32,923) Kemono Games
Rotten Flesh - Cosmic Horror Survival Game older $11.99 90 68% 2.7k $32k (exactly $32,373) Steelkrill Studio
Astrodogs older $12.99 71 80% 2.1k $28k (exactly $27,669) Dynamic Media Triad
CometStriker DX older $14.99 53 98% 1.6k $24k (exactly $23,834) Iced Lizard Games
Biolab Wars older $4.99 109 89% 3.3k $16k (exactly $16,317) 2ndBoss
Super Space Pug older $1.99 185 55% 5.6k $11k (exactly $11,044) Digital Dawn Studios
Never Ending Beyond $9.99 20 80% 600 $6.0k (exactly $5,994) One More Dream Studios
Pancake Patrol $4.99 25 92% 750 $3.7k (exactly $3,742) Power Plins Games
King Charles: Rise of the Alpha · EA $4.99 13 100% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) DodoModo, BoppoLoppo
Peraglees - The Ooloufian Resistance $3.99 12 91% 360 $1.4k (exactly $1,436) DPADFTW
Donna Survivors $2.99 16 87% 480 $1.4k (exactly $1,435) RAZE GAMES
Yellow Trouble $17.99 2 100% 60 $1.1k (exactly $1,079) DrearyWeary
Fully Dogomatic $3.99 8 87% 240 $958 (exactly $958) Tommy Keys
Adorable Dog: Gnomeageddon $1.99 5 100% 150 $298 (exactly $298) Outer Pixels
On Your Notebook $1.99 5 100% 150 $298 (exactly $298) Marimori
Endless Furry Slayer $0.99 5 80% 150 $148 (exactly $148) Tegridy Made Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.