Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Building

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Building Sports game?

Sports + Building

Of 21 developers who shipped a Building Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 31 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.9k, ×7.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $260k, ×415 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 31 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 31 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Building
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $72k → $92k → $40k → $449 → $95k (still earning) → $5.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Building: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $4.9k (exactly $4,947)
Top 25% $58k (exactly $58,487)
Top 5% $260k (exactly $260,439)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 92
Announced 31
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 150% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, Building; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Immersive Sim, Sandbox
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, 3D, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 2,527 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $4.9k, 1 in 4 over $58k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 31 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DRIFT CE older $29.99 1,830 73% 55k $1.6M (exactly $1,646,451) ECC GAMES
Nimbatus - The Space Drone Constructor older $19.99 1,758 78% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,054,273) Stray Fawn Studio
Gym Simulator 24 older $12.99 2,531 84% 76k $986k (exactly $986,331) Red Axe Games
Zeepkist · EA older $19.99 1,555 97% 47k $933k (exactly $932,533) Steelpan Interactive
WE ARE FOOTBALL 2024 older $39.99 751 79% 23k $901k (exactly $900,975) Winning Streak Games GmbH
Esports Life Tycoon older $19.99 605 61% 18k $363k (exactly $362,818) UPLAY Online
Underground Garage $14.99 646 63% 19k $291k (exactly $290,506) BeardedBrothers.games
BULT: Hunting simulator · EA $9.99 869 87% 26k $260k (exactly $260,439) Nordrise
When Ski Lifts Go Wrong older $14.99 519 87% 16k $233k (exactly $233,394) Hugecalf Studios
Copa City: Matchday Manager $24.99 247 72% 7.4k $185k (exactly $185,176) Triple Espresso S.A.
Rally Mechanic Simulator $17.99 195 69% 5.9k $105k (exactly $105,241) Play2Chill S.A., Atomic Jelly
Under Par Golf Architect $19.99 158 81% 4.7k $95k (exactly $94,753) Broken Arms Games
Puttler $7.99 244 95% 7.3k $58k (exactly $58,487) Bean Juice Studios
Sports: Renovations $24.99 53 58% 1.6k $40k (exactly $39,734) Goat Gamez
Octohill Ski Tycoon $8.99 41 85% 1.2k $11k (exactly $11,058) DeuxBaguettes
Surf Sandbox $4.99 40 95% 1.2k $6.0k (exactly $5,988) nocanwin
Jumbo Scooter $5.00 34 85% 1.0k $5.1k (exactly $5,100) BepeDev

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.