Do I ship it?

GamesSwordplaySwordplay + Beat 'em up

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Beat 'em up Swordplay game?

Swordplay + Beat 'em up

Of 31 developers who shipped a Beat 'em up Swordplay game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 54 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×2.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $160k, ×268 the market median. Revenue is up 70% on the market; 54 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 70% on the market, 54 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Swordplay + Beat 'em up
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 31
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.9k → $6.0k → $2.9k → $1.5k → $898 → $1.4k → $989 (still earning) → $3.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Swordplay + Beat 'em up: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 31
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,438)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $13,486)
Top 5% $168k (exactly $168,030)
Developers, 2 yr 31
Released games 114
Announced 54
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 70% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Swordplay
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Beat 'em up
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Swordplay, Beat 'em up; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Hack and Slash, 2D Fighter
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 6,314 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $160k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 8 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 54 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Swordplay with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelFair13 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Strategy RPGFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced
  4. + Auto BattlerFair13 devs · median $1.1k · 8 announced
  5. + DeckbuildingFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  6. + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  7. + SamuraiPoor odds12 devs · median $80k · 21 announced
  8. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 22 announced
  9. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds39 devs · median $13k · 79 announced
  10. + FightingPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  11. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $12k · 53 announced
  12. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 26 announced

All 115 pairs on the Swordplay page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
METAL GEAR RISING: REVENGEANCE older $29.99 69,104 96% 2.1M $62M (exactly $62,172,869) PlatinumGames
Sifu older $39.99 21,620 92% 649k $26M (exactly $25,937,514) Sloclap
SOULCALIBUR VI older $59.99 9,768 83% 293k $18M (exactly $17,579,470) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc., Dimps Corpor… (BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc., Dimps Corporation)
En Garde! older $19.99 4,161 90% 125k $2.5M (exactly $2,495,352) Fireplace Games
Killer is Dead - Nightmare Edition older $19.99 3,879 75% 116k $2.3M (exactly $2,326,236) KADOKAWA GAMES / GRASSHOPPER MANUFACTURE
Soulstice older $39.99 1,845 76% 55k $2.2M (exactly $2,213,446) Reply Game Studios
Path of Kung Fu $14.99 4,880 72% 146k $2.2M (exactly $2,194,536) 游鲤化龙工作室
Mitsurugi Kamui Hikae older $9.99 2,747 81% 82k $823k (exactly $823,276) Zenith Blue
Swordsman VR older $19.99 651 68% 20k $390k (exactly $390,405) Sinn Studio Inc.
Tales Of Glory older $10.99 1,042 80% 31k $344k (exactly $343,547) BlackTale Games
Halluci-Sabbat of Koishi $7.99 701 91% 21k $168k (exactly $168,030) ZRIGN 地霊研究院
Yuri Sword Saga $10.99 212 97% 6.4k $70k (exactly $69,896) Pico Games
Age of Barbarians Chronicles $18.99 101 76% 3.0k $58k (exactly $57,540) Crian Soft
Lady Death Demonicron $39.99 36 47% 1.1k $43k (exactly $43,189) Art Of Play Interactive
Kraken City $4.99 189 67% 5.7k $28k (exactly $28,293) nStarcube
Disco Samurai $9.99 45 88% 1.4k $13k (exactly $13,486) Pixel Fiber Games
RHYTHMKILL $9.99 45 82% 1.4k $13k (exactly $13,486) GETTAKE
Buccaneers Shipshape $12.99 31 87% 930 $12k (exactly $12,081) Merso Entertainment
Great Tough Bikini 6 $2.99 74 70% 2.2k $6.6k (exactly $6,638) nStarcube

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.