Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Beat 'em up

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Beat 'em up Sports game?

Sports + Beat 'em up

Of 34 developers who shipped a Beat 'em up Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 46 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $78k, ×125 the market median. Revenue is up 95% on the market; 46 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 95% on the market, 46 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Beat 'em up
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 34
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $12k → $419 → $46k → $1.2k → $3.0k → $1.2k → $2.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Beat 'em up: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 34
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,948)
Top 25% $5.4k (exactly $5,395)
Top 5% $78k (exactly $78,248)
Developers, 2 yr 34
Released games 147
Announced 46
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 95% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Beat 'em up
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, Beat 'em up; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Combat, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 577 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $5.3k, 1 in 20 over $78k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. Nearly all of the 26 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 46 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
TEKKEN 7 older $39.99 68,063 83% 2.0M $82M (exactly $81,655,181) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc.
Punch Club older $9.99 12,098 81% 363k $3.6M (exactly $3,625,771) Lazy Bear Games
Wrestling Empire older $19.99 3,036 94% 91k $1.8M (exactly $1,820,689) MDickie
Punch A Bunch older $14.99 963 74% 29k $433k (exactly $433,061) Pontypants
River City Super Sports Challenge ~All Stars Special~ older $19.99 689 67% 21k $413k (exactly $413,193) Arc System Works
Karate Master 2 Knock Down Blow older $9.99 718 86% 22k $215k (exactly $215,185) Crian Soft
Dragon Fist: VR Kung Fu older $19.99 305 95% 9.2k $183k (exactly $182,908) Ben Olding Games
RetroMania Wrestling older $19.99 243 80% 7.3k $146k (exactly $145,727) Retrosoft Studios
Tactic Boxing older $9.99 416 77% 12k $125k (exactly $124,675) Stately Eagle Games
Big Rumble Boxing: Creed Champions older $39.99 92 65% 2.8k $110k (exactly $110,372) Survios
LES MILLS XR BODYCOMBAT $29.99 121 85% 3.6k $109k (exactly $108,864) Odders Lab
Femboy Futa Mania 🌶️ $14.99 174 71% 5.2k $78k (exactly $78,248) Lewd Star
FUTA FIGHT & FUCK 🥊 $14.99 115 92% 3.5k $52k (exactly $51,716) BanzaiProject
The Last Ninja Collection + Bonus Games $29.99 16 100% 480 $14k (exactly $14,395) System 3 Software
Ink Inside $9.99 43 95% 1.3k $13k (exactly $12,887) Blackfield Entertainment LLC
Bounce 2 $9.99 35 85% 1.1k $10k (exactly $10,490) Digital Joy Games
Bare Knuckle Sandwich $7.99 29 96% 870 $7.0k (exactly $6,951) Raised By Screens
Hockey Club · EA $24.99 9 66% 270 $6.7k (exactly $6,747) Boogerman Games, LLC
Real Boxing 2: Remastered $9.99 18 38% 540 $5.4k (exactly $5,395) Vivid Games S.A.
Layup Legends™ $9.99 17 100% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) Luke Stanback

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.