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Should I ship a Dating Sim Base Building game?
Base Building + Dating Sim
Only 19 developers shipped a Dating Sim Base Building game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Return from Core, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $130k, ×204 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $8.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $820k, ×1315 the market median. Revenue is up 205% on the market; 21 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $8.4k (exactly $8,396) |
|---|---|
| Median | $128k (exactly $128,377) |
| Top 25% | $260k (exactly $260,146) |
| Top 5% | $826k (exactly $825,714) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 19 |
| Released games | 36 |
| Announced | 21 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $12.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 205% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Base Building
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Dating Sim
- effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Base Building, Dating Sim; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Building, Sandbox
- Price point
- $12.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.
The top 10 games average 81% positive over 7,420 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $8.4k. 5 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Base Building with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + ProgrammingFair
- + DwarvesFair
- + Bullet HellFair
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + SailingPoor odds
- + TrainsPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + UndergroundPoor odds
- + MarsPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Job SimulatorPoor odds
Comparable games
Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War III 2017 · $17M 
AI＊Shoujo/AI＊少女 2020 · $4.4M 
Yog-Sothoth’s Yard 2023 · $3.4M 
Return from Core 2025 · $826k 
Island Notes 2025 · $344k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War III | older | $39.99 | 14,436 50% | 433k | $17M (exactly $17,318,869) | Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive… (Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
| | AI＊Shoujo/AI＊少女 | older | $69.99 | 2,100 75% | 63k | $4.4M (exactly $4,409,370) | ILLUSION |
| | Yog-Sothoth’s Yard | older | $10.99 | 10,207 93% | 306k | $3.4M (exactly $3,365,248) | Bone Nail |
| | Return from Core | $16.99 | 1,620 75% | 49k | $826k (exactly $825,714) | 顽核社 FuncoreClub | |
| | Island Notes | $12.99 | 884 82% | 27k | $344k (exactly $344,495) | KangBaoGame | |
 | BM General Hospital | $7.99 | 1,368 86% | 41k | $328k (exactly $327,910) | zzzgame | |
 | One Lonely Outpost | $19.99 | 540 58% | 16k | $324k (exactly $323,838) | indie.io | |
 | Tamer: King of Dinosaurs | · EA | $24.99 | 347 86% | 10k | $260k (exactly $260,146) | Ride the Lion Studios |
 | MeteoriteFall | $12.99 | 651 78% | 20k | $254k (exactly $253,695) | ST studio | |
 | Isekai Sex Boutique | $10.99 | 746 88% | 22k | $246k (exactly $245,956) | PEROCO WORKS | |
 | Harem in Another World | $14.99 | 431 94% | 13k | $194k (exactly $193,821) | Jong Games | |
 | Futanari★Coffee shop | $13.99 | 357 91% | 11k | $150k (exactly $149,833) | W77Games | |
 | Immoral-Bathhouse | $8.99 | 476 80% | 14k | $128k (exactly $128,377) | 奶油貓工作室, バター貓スタジオ |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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