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Should I ship a Sailing Base Building game?
Base Building + Sailing
Only 9 developers shipped a Sailing Base Building game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Windrose, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 38 more are announced, ×7.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $360k, ×567 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $28k; 1 in 20 cleared $43M, ×68614 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 38 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $27k (exactly $27,279) |
|---|---|
| Median | $356k (exactly $356,108) |
| Top 25% | $2.3M (exactly $2,291,833) |
| Top 5% | $43M (exactly $43,089,332) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 9 |
| Released games | 27 |
| Announced | 38 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $24.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Base Building
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Sailing
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Base Building, Sailing
- Price point
- $24.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $18.99.
The top 10 games average 78% positive over 159,568 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $28k. 5 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 38 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×7.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Base Building with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + ProgrammingFair
- + DwarvesFair
- + Bullet HellFair
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Dating SimPoor odds
- + TrainsPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + UndergroundPoor odds
- + MarsPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Job SimulatorPoor odds
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Windrose | · EA | $29.99 | 47,893 86% | 1.4M | $43M (exactly $43,089,332) | Kraken Express |
| | Stormworks: Build and Rescue | older | $24.99 | 54,649 90% | 1.6M | $41M (exactly $40,970,355) | Geometa |
| | ATLAS | · EA older | $29.99 | 37,119 46% | 1.1M | $33M (exactly $33,395,964) | Grapeshot Games, Instinct Games |
| | The Last Caretaker | · EA | $34.99 | 13,178 86% | 395k | $14M (exactly $13,832,947) | Channel37 Ltd |
| | Aloft | · EA | $24.99 | 3,057 82% | 92k | $2.3M (exactly $2,291,833) | Astrolabe Interactive Inc. |
| | Voyagers of Nera | · EA | $29.99 | 2,022 83% | 61k | $1.8M (exactly $1,819,193) | Treehouse Games |
| | Breakwaters: Crystal Tides | · EA older | $19.99 | 866 63% | 26k | $519k (exactly $519,340) | Soaring Pixels Games |
| | Forgotten Seas | $24.99 | 475 75% | 14k | $356k (exactly $356,108) | Pangea Game Studios | |
| | Feral Blue | · EA older | $19.99 | 239 51% | 7.2k | $143k (exactly $143,328) | Snowbird Games |
| | Cursed Crew | · EA older | $20.00 | 70 80% | 2.1k | $42k (exactly $42,000) | Cracklewock Games |
| | Sailing alone:Aftermath | · EA | $18.99 | 67 68% | 2.0k | $38k (exactly $38,170) | MLStudio |
| | U.N.P.O.C. Vessel of Opportunity | $12.99 | 70 68% | 2.1k | $27k (exactly $27,279) | Danny Ziemer | |
| | HEXSTORM: Tears of Arcadia | $8.99 | 56 75% | 1.7k | $15k (exactly $15,103) | Tearevo | |
| | Tidewrack | $9.99 | 22 68% | 660 | $6.6k (exactly $6,593) | OverLKD Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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