Do I ship it?

GamesBase BuildingBase Building + Sailing

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sailing Base Building game?

Base Building + Sailing

Only 9 developers shipped a Sailing Base Building game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Windrose, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 38 more are announced, ×7.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360k, ×567 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $28k; 1 in 20 cleared $43M, ×68614 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 38 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 567.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 38 announced, ×7.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Base Building + Sailing
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $38k → $1.8M
Outcomes for Base Building + Sailing: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $27k (exactly $27,279)
Median $356k (exactly $356,108)
Top 25% $2.3M (exactly $2,291,833)
Top 5% $43M (exactly $43,089,332)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 27
Announced 38
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $24.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Sailing
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Base Building, Sailing
Price point
$24.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $18.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 159,568 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $28k, median $360k, 1 in 4 over $2.2M, 1 in 20 over $43M.

3 in 10 developers made under $28k. 5 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 38 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×7.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Base Building with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ProgrammingFair13 devs · median $53k · 21 announced
  2. + DwarvesFair12 devs · median $13k · 19 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair61 devs · median $540 · 67 announced
  4. + DiplomacyPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  5. + Dating SimPoor odds19 devs · median $128k · 21 announced
  6. + TrainsPoor odds19 devs · median $113k · 47 announced
  7. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 35 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds130 devs · median $72k · 262 announced
  9. + UndergroundPoor odds12 devs · median $65k · 71 announced
  10. + MarsPoor odds15 devs · median $58k · 28 announced
  11. + HistoricalPoor odds81 devs · median $58k · 175 announced
  12. + Job SimulatorPoor odds23 devs · median $53k · 19 announced

All 175 pairs on the Base Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Windrose · EA $29.99 47,893 86% 1.4M $43M (exactly $43,089,332) Kraken Express
Stormworks: Build and Rescue older $24.99 54,649 90% 1.6M $41M (exactly $40,970,355) Geometa
ATLAS · EA older $29.99 37,119 46% 1.1M $33M (exactly $33,395,964) Grapeshot Games, Instinct Games
The Last Caretaker · EA $34.99 13,178 86% 395k $14M (exactly $13,832,947) Channel37 Ltd
Aloft · EA $24.99 3,057 82% 92k $2.3M (exactly $2,291,833) Astrolabe Interactive Inc.
Voyagers of Nera · EA $29.99 2,022 83% 61k $1.8M (exactly $1,819,193) Treehouse Games
Breakwaters: Crystal Tides · EA older $19.99 866 63% 26k $519k (exactly $519,340) Soaring Pixels Games
Forgotten Seas $24.99 475 75% 14k $356k (exactly $356,108) Pangea Game Studios
Feral Blue · EA older $19.99 239 51% 7.2k $143k (exactly $143,328) Snowbird Games
Cursed Crew · EA older $20.00 70 80% 2.1k $42k (exactly $42,000) Cracklewock Games
Sailing alone:Aftermath · EA $18.99 67 68% 2.0k $38k (exactly $38,170) MLStudio
U.N.P.O.C. Vessel of Opportunity $12.99 70 68% 2.1k $27k (exactly $27,279) Danny Ziemer
HEXSTORM: Tears of Arcadia $8.99 56 75% 1.7k $15k (exactly $15,103) Tearevo
Tidewrack $9.99 22 68% 660 $6.6k (exactly $6,593) OverLKD Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.