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Should I ship a Base Building Diplomacy game?
Diplomacy + Base Building
Only 19 developers shipped a Base Building Diplomacy game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Corsair Cove, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 47 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $520k, ×827 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $26k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.6M, ×5781 the market median. Revenue is up 170% on the market; 47 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $26k (exactly $25,888) |
|---|---|
| Median | $520k (exactly $519,542) |
| Top 25% | $2.3M (exactly $2,270,092) |
| Top 5% | $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 19 |
| Released games | 64 |
| Announced | 47 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $19.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 170% on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Diplomacy
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Base Building
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Diplomacy, Base Building; all of the top 25% also carry Building, City Builder, Colony Sim
- Price point
- $19.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $19.99.
The top 10 games average 82% positive over 24,870 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $26k. 4 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 47 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Diplomacy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Visual NovelFair
- + Interactive FictionFair
- + Space SimLong shot
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + PvPPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + City BuilderPoor odds
- + SurvivalPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + Character CustomizationPoor odds
Comparable games
Manor Lords 2024 · EA · $92M 
Against the Storm 2023 · $30M 
Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic 2024 · $30M 
Empires of the Undergrowth 2024 · $16M 
Dune: Spice Wars 2023 · $12M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Manor Lords | · EA older | $39.99 | 76,884 84% | 2.3M | $92M (exactly $92,237,735) | Slavic Magic |
| | Against the Storm | older | $29.99 | 33,271 94% | 998k | $30M (exactly $29,933,919) | Eremite Games |
| | Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic | older | $39.99 | 24,825 91% | 745k | $30M (exactly $29,782,552) | 3Division |
| | Empires of the Undergrowth | older | $29.99 | 17,483 94% | 524k | $16M (exactly $15,729,455) | Slug Disco |
| | Dune: Spice Wars | older | $34.99 | 11,561 79% | 347k | $12M (exactly $12,135,582) | Shiro Games |
 | Eco | · EA older | $29.99 | 11,375 80% | 341k | $10M (exactly $10,234,088) | Strange Loop Games |
 | Norland | · EA older | $29.99 | 8,906 81% | 267k | $8.0M (exactly $8,012,728) | Long Jaunt |
 | Sins of a Solar Empire®: Rebellion | older | $19.99 | 10,243 93% | 307k | $6.1M (exactly $6,142,727) | Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock En… (Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock Entertainment) |
 | Fabledom | older | $20.99 | 6,772 85% | 203k | $4.3M (exactly $4,264,328) | Grenaa Games |
 | Corsair Cove | $39.99 | 3,026 85% | 91k | $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) | Limbic Entertainment | |
 | Cataclismo | $29.99 | 3,899 88% | 117k | $3.5M (exactly $3,507,930) | Digital Sun | |
 | Whiskerwood | · EA | $29.99 | 3,221 92% | 97k | $2.9M (exactly $2,897,934) | Minakata Dynamics |
 | Surviving Mars: Relaunched | $39.99 | 2,202 55% | 66k | $2.6M (exactly $2,641,739) | Haemimont Games | |
 | Eastern Era | $24.99 | 3,028 65% | 91k | $2.3M (exactly $2,270,092) | FunYoo Games | |
 | Nova Roma | · EA | $29.99 | 2,085 93% | 63k | $1.9M (exactly $1,875,874) | Lion Shield |
 | Heart of the Machine | $29.99 | 2,010 91% | 60k | $1.8M (exactly $1,808,397) | Arcen Games | |
 | House of Legacy | · EA | $14.99 | 3,269 84% | 98k | $1.5M (exactly $1,470,069) | S3 Studio |
 | Microcivilization | $17.99 | 1,437 78% | 43k | $776k (exactly $775,549) | Ondrej Homola | |
 | Synergy | $24.99 | 693 79% | 21k | $520k (exactly $519,542) | Leikir Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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