Do I ship it?

GamesReal-Time with PauseReal-Time with Pause + Base Building

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Base Building Real-Time with Pause game?

Real-Time with Pause + Base Building

Of 20 developers who shipped a Base Building Real-Time with Pause game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 35 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $73k, ×49 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $24k; 1 in 20 cleared $9.8M, ×6549 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 35 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 48.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 35 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real-Time with Pause + Base Building
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.8k → $645k → $219k → $577k → $215k (still earning) → $7.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Real-Time with Pause + Base Building: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $24k (exactly $23,747)
Median $73k (exactly $73,163)
Top 25% $767k (exactly $766,544)
Top 5% $9.8M (exactly $9,810,329)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 67
Announced 35
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $17.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 135% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real-Time with Pause
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Real-Time with Pause, Base Building; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Resource Management, Strategy, City Builder
Price point
$17.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $17.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 23,077 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $24k, median $73k, 1 in 4 over $760k, 1 in 20 over $9.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $24k. None of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 35 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real-Time with Pause with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CombatStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + ActionFair16 devs · median $103k · 18 announced
  3. + Open WorldPoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  4. + AdventurePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced
  5. + City BuilderPoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 25 announced
  6. + ExplorationPoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  7. + Choices MatterPoor odds9 devs · median $215k · 23 announced
  8. + HistoricalPoor odds14 devs · median $124k · 19 announced
  9. + MilitaryPoor odds11 devs · median $124k · 33 announced
  10. + MedievalPoor odds10 devs · median $87k · 22 announced
  11. + SurvivalPoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 27 announced
  12. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $73k · 21 announced

All 41 pairs on the Real-Time with Pause page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Frostpunk older $29.99 114,376 92% 3.4M $103M (exactly $102,904,087) 11 bit studios
They Are Billions older $29.99 46,223 85% 1.4M $42M (exactly $41,586,833) Numantian Games
Company of Heroes 2 older $19.99 68,909 80% 2.1M $41M (exactly $41,324,727) Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive… (Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Diplomacy is Not an Option $29.99 10,904 85% 327k $9.8M (exactly $9,810,329) Door 407
Cossacks 3 older $19.99 12,406 82% 372k $7.4M (exactly $7,439,878) GSC Game World
Supreme Commander: Forged Alliance older $12.99 9,919 96% 298k $3.9M (exactly $3,865,434) Gas Powered Games
Flotsam $24.99 4,308 80% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,229,708) Pajama Llama Games
New Cycle · EA older $29.99 2,597 78% 78k $2.3M (exactly $2,336,521) Core Engage
Automation Empire older $29.99 2,584 65% 78k $2.3M (exactly $2,324,825) DOG HOGGLER
Startup Company older $12.99 5,853 81% 176k $2.3M (exactly $2,280,914) Hovgaard Games
House of Legacy · EA $14.99 3,269 84% 98k $1.5M (exactly $1,470,069) S3 Studio
Laysara: Summit Kingdom $24.99 1,421 80% 43k $1.1M (exactly $1,065,324) Quite OK Games
Airborne Empire $29.99 852 86% 26k $767k (exactly $766,544) The Wandering Band LLC
Let Them Trade $17.99 1,070 84% 32k $577k (exactly $577,479) Spaceflower
Escape The Mad Empire · EA $17.99 406 88% 12k $219k (exactly $219,118) XperimentalZ Games
Here Comes The Swarm · EA $19.99 358 84% 11k $215k (exactly $214,693) CableHook Games
Rift Riff $12.99 367 94% 11k $143k (exactly $143,020) Adriaan de Jongh, Sim Kaart, Matthijs K… (Adriaan de Jongh, Sim Kaart, Matthijs Koster, Franz LaZerte, Professional Panda)
Repterra $19.99 122 90% 3.7k $73k (exactly $73,163) Chute Apps

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.