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Should I ship a Base Building Open World Survival Craft?
Open World Survival Craft + Base Building
Of 130 developers who shipped a Base Building Open World Survival Craft in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 262 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 9 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $72k, ×54 the market's $1.3k for a 9 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $16k; 1 in 20 cleared $25M, ×18749 the market median. Revenue is up 205% on the market; 262 games are announced against 73 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $15k (exactly $15,285) |
|---|---|
| Median | $72k (exactly $72,402) |
| Top 25% | $1.3M (exactly $1,340,464) |
| Top 5% | $25M (exactly $25,255,479) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 130 |
| Released games | 347 |
| Announced | 262 |
| Effort | 9 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $15.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 205% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World Survival Craft
- effort 9 / 10 · low · dedicated multiplayer servers over a huge content build
- Base Building
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 9 / 10 · studio only
- Systems
- Open World Survival Craft, Base Building; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Crafting, Open World, Exploration
- Price point
- $15.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $15.99.
The top 10 games average 91% positive over 1,160,595 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $16k. 4 in 10 of the 64 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 262 games are announced against 73 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World Survival Craft with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + AutomationFair
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + Online Co-OpPoor odds
- + Immersive SimPoor odds
- + PhysicsPoor odds
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + MedievalPoor odds
- + ShooterPoor odds
- + PvPPoor odds
- + Sci-fiPoor odds
- + Character CustomizationPoor odds
- + RPGPoor odds
Comparable games
Valheim 2026 · $418M 
Palworld 2026 · $371M 
7 Days to Die 2024 · $369M 
Subnautica 2018 · $307M 
Satisfactory 2024 · $282M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Valheim | $29.99 | 464,893 94% | 14M | $418M (exactly $418,264,232) | Iron Gate AB | |
| | Palworld | $29.99 | 411,947 94% | 12M | $371M (exactly $370,628,716) | Pocketpair | |
| | 7 Days to Die | older | $44.99 | 273,589 87% | 8.2M | $369M (exactly $369,263,073) | The Fun Pimps |
| | Subnautica | older | $29.99 | 341,390 97% | 10M | $307M (exactly $307,148,583) | Unknown Worlds Entertainment |
| | Satisfactory | older | $39.99 | 234,993 97% | 7.0M | $282M (exactly $281,921,102) | Coffee Stain Studios |
 | ARK: Survival Evolved | older | $14.99 | 586,768 83% | 18M | $264M (exactly $263,869,570) | Studio Wildcard, Instinct Games, Efecto… (Studio Wildcard, Instinct Games, Efecto Studios, Virtual Basement LLC) |
 | Raft | older | $19.99 | 323,481 93% | 9.7M | $194M (exactly $193,991,556) | Redbeet Interactive |
 | ASTRONEER | older | $29.99 | 118,844 91% | 3.6M | $107M (exactly $106,923,947) | System Era Softworks |
 | Dune: Awakening | $49.99 | 66,844 71% | 2.0M | $100M (exactly $100,245,947) | Funcom | |
 | Grounded | older | $39.99 | 75,755 90% | 2.3M | $91M (exactly $90,883,274) | Obsidian Entertainment |
 | Abiotic Factor | $34.99 | 42,075 95% | 1.3M | $44M (exactly $44,166,128) | Deep Field Games | |
 | Windrose | · EA | $29.99 | 47,893 86% | 1.4M | $43M (exactly $43,089,332) | Kraken Express |
 | Deadside | $24.99 | 34,560 76% | 1.0M | $26M (exactly $25,909,632) | Bad Pixel | |
 | RuneScape: Dragonwilds | $29.99 | 28,071 81% | 842k | $25M (exactly $25,255,479) | Jagex Ltd | |
 | Grounded 2 | · EA | $29.99 | 21,442 82% | 643k | $19M (exactly $19,291,367) | Obsidian Entertainment, Eidos-Montréal |
 | Soulmask | $29.99 | 18,445 76% | 553k | $17M (exactly $16,594,966) | CampFire Studio | |
 | Necesse | $14.99 | 24,425 93% | 733k | $11M (exactly $10,983,922) | Fair Games ApS |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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