Do I ship it?

GamesBase BuildingBase Building + Job Simulator

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Job Simulator Base Building game?

Base Building + Job Simulator

Of 23 developers who shipped a Job Simulator Base Building game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $53k, ×84 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $23k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2173 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 19 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 84.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 19 announced, ×1.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Base Building + Job Simulator
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $498k → $251k → $85k → $54k (still earning) → $23k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Base Building + Job Simulator: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $23k (exactly $22,935)
Median $53k (exactly $52,747)
Top 25% $208k (exactly $208,022)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,364,901)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 30
Announced 19
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Job Simulator
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Base Building, Job Simulator; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Building, Immersive Sim
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 8,837 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $23k, median $53k, 1 in 4 over $200k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $23k. None of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 19 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Base Building with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ProgrammingFair13 devs · median $53k · 21 announced
  2. + DwarvesFair12 devs · median $13k · 19 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair61 devs · median $540 · 67 announced
  4. + DiplomacyPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  5. + SailingPoor odds9 devs · median $356k · 38 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds19 devs · median $128k · 21 announced
  7. + TrainsPoor odds19 devs · median $113k · 47 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 35 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds130 devs · median $72k · 262 announced
  10. + UndergroundPoor odds12 devs · median $65k · 71 announced
  11. + MarsPoor odds15 devs · median $58k · 28 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds81 devs · median $58k · 175 announced

All 175 pairs on the Base Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Ranch of Rivershine $29.99 2,050 94% 62k $1.8M (exactly $1,844,385) Cozy Bee Games
Tavern Manager Simulator 🍻 older $14.99 4,018 91% 121k $1.8M (exactly $1,806,895) One More Time
Alchemy Factory $17.99 2,529 87% 76k $1.4M (exactly $1,364,901) D5 Copperhead
Coffee Caravan older $11.99 1,400 92% 42k $504k (exactly $503,580) Broccoli Games
Furnish Master · EA older $14.99 1,108 81% 33k $498k (exactly $498,268) Alex Blintsov
Fuel Harvest Together $13.99 879 69% 26k $369k (exactly $368,916) Say2Sun
Returns Outlet Simulator · EA $9.99 921 95% 28k $276k (exactly $276,024) Twisted Twice Games
Arctic Motel Simulator $17.99 465 88% 14k $251k (exactly $250,960) One Slice of Pizza Games
Cozy Cleaner $6.99 992 89% 30k $208k (exactly $208,022) Payoff Games
Tailor Simulator · EA $9.99 406 90% 12k $122k (exactly $121,678) Zoady
Mall Rivals $14.99 196 75% 5.9k $88k (exactly $88,141) Creedon Games
Monster Mop Up $14.99 189 57% 5.7k $85k (exactly $84,993) Terahard Ltd
My Little Cafe Nightmare $8.99 210 90% 6.3k $57k (exactly $56,637) SethMadDev

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.