Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Auto Battler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Auto Battler Sports game?

Sports + Auto Battler

Of 28 developers who shipped an Auto Battler Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.4k, ×5.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $110k, ×183 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 25 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 25 announced, ×1.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Auto Battler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $598 → $1.6k → $29k → $3.5k → $2.5k (still earning) → $238 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Auto Battler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $3.4k (exactly $3,356)
Top 25% $9.4k (exactly $9,431)
Top 5% $115k (exactly $115,171)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 84
Announced 25
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 120% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Auto Battler
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, Auto Battler; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Character Customization, Management
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cartoony
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 65% positive over 2,888 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $3.4k, 1 in 4 over $9.4k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 9 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Esports Godfather older $19.99 4,319 90% 130k $2.6M (exactly $2,590,104) Asteroid Game Studio
Teamfight Manager older $9.99 5,663 86% 170k $1.7M (exactly $1,697,201) Team Samoyed
Teamfight Manager 2 · EA $19.99 2,251 60% 68k $1.3M (exactly $1,349,925) Team Samoyed
Age of Gladiators older $7.99 709 77% 21k $170k (exactly $169,947) Creative Storm Entertainment
Turnfall $39.99 96 95% 2.9k $115k (exactly $115,171) Koleapin Studio
Squiggle Football $16.99 144 93% 4.3k $73k (exactly $73,397) Max Barry
Basketball Club Story older $8.99 184 71% 5.5k $50k (exactly $49,625) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
Electro Bop Boxing League $14.99 84 79% 2.5k $38k (exactly $37,775) Developer Dob
Neon Curves Racing $12.99 92 94% 2.8k $36k (exactly $35,852) Ghost Machine
Pro Wrestler Story $8.99 109 49% 3.3k $29k (exactly $29,397) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
TORSO TENNIS $4.99 63 100% 1.9k $9.4k (exactly $9,431) Michael Mato
Brutal Ball Manager 2 · EA $9.99 18 100% 540 $5.4k (exactly $5,395) Stout Kassel Games
Bastionforge $9.99 17 76% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) Gamesforgames
Turn Based Boxing: Tactics - Legends Edition $9.99 14 85% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) The Slanted Room

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.