Do I ship it?

GamesTop-Down ShooterTop-Down Shooter + Artificial Intelligence

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an AI Top-Down Shooter?

Top-Down Shooter + Artificial Intelligence

Only 19 developers shipped an AI Top-Down Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Artificial Extinction 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 11 developers shipped in the last year and 40 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 40 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Top-Down Shooter + Artificial Intelligence
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $390 → $359 → $298 → $1.4k → $239 → $1.3k (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Top-Down Shooter + Artificial Intelligence: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $239 (exactly $239)
Top 25% $4.6k (exactly $4,617)
Top 5% $68k (exactly $67,766)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 77
Announced 40
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Artificial Intelligence
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Top-Down Shooter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Action-Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Isometric, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 281 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $240, 1 in 4 over $4.6k, 1 in 20 over $67k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. All of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Top-Down Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + VampiresFair16 devs · median $3.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Turn-Based StrategyFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  3. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 15 announced
  4. + IdlerFair24 devs · median $748 · 30 announced
  5. + ArcheryFair9 devs · median $359 · 11 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds12 devs · median $6.5k · 28 announced
  7. + Tactical RPGPoor odds12 devs · median $5.5k · 16 announced
  8. + Action RTSPoor odds14 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  9. + HistoricalPoor odds18 devs · median $3.3k · 24 announced
  10. + ModernPoor odds13 devs · median $3.3k · 19 announced
  11. + CraftingPoor odds45 devs · median $3.1k · 125 announced
  12. + DystopianPoor odds24 devs · median $3.1k · 92 announced

All 150 pairs on the Top-Down Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
RUNNING WITH RIFLES older $14.99 14,676 87% 440k $6.6M (exactly $6,599,797) Osumia Games
Mind older $17.99 372 69% 11k $201k (exactly $200,768) WHIRLLAXY LIMITED
Artificial Extinction 2 $19.99 113 77% 3.4k $68k (exactly $67,766) 100Hr Games Inc
Project Beril / 贝丽尔养成计划 older $9.99 63 88% 1.9k $19k (exactly $18,881) SlimeSmile
Regulators $14.99 35 100% 1.1k $16k (exactly $15,740) Orangepixel
Seven Cities · EA $14.99 32 87% 960 $14k (exactly $14,390) IMV Studio
SUPERVERSE $9.99 37 70% 1.1k $11k (exactly $11,089) Superverse Industries
WAVECADE older $9.99 27 92% 810 $8.1k (exactly $8,092) Andrew Spalato, Lewis Spalato
BITGUN older $9.99 26 69% 780 $7.8k (exactly $7,792) LogLog Games
Technocide older $11.99 16 93% 480 $5.8k (exactly $5,755) Dextrous Games
Brawl Squad X: Battle Arena $13.99 11 81% 330 $4.6k (exactly $4,617) Army Troop Studios
Enemy Inside · EA $12.99 10 100% 300 $3.9k (exactly $3,897) Six Ways Games
Scrap Age: Survivors $4.99 11 90% 330 $1.6k (exactly $1,647) Fractal Blue Entertainment
Front Lines $1.99 23 60% 690 $1.4k (exactly $1,373) Waterfoul Studios
Nano Squadron $5.99 7 85% 210 $1.3k (exactly $1,258) Rough Sawn Games
Outbreak Squad $3.99 2 50% 60 $239 (exactly $239) Loner Chaos

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.