Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Artificial Intelligence

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an AI Sports game?

Sports + Artificial Intelligence

Of 59 developers who shipped an AI Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 42 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $210. Revenue is up 530% on the market; 42 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 530% on the market, 42 announced, ×1.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Artificial Intelligence
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 59
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $23k → $6.0k → $0 → $718 → $1.5k → $1.2k → $5.4k (still earning) → $505 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Artificial Intelligence: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 59
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $20,992)
Top 5% $5.4M (exactly $5,423,525)
Developers, 2 yr 59
Released games 177
Announced 42
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 530% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Artificial Intelligence
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Strategy, Action
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 68% positive over 33,463 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $5.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 9 in 10 of the 29 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 42 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Assetto Corsa older $19.99 136,067 92% 4.1M $82M (exactly $81,599,380) Kunos Simulazioni
INAZUMA ELEVEN: Victory Road $69.99 11,180 88% 335k $23M (exactly $23,474,646) LEVEL5 Inc.
Assetto Corsa EVO · EA $39.99 16,545 60% 496k $20M (exactly $19,849,036) KUNOS Simulazioni
EA SPORTS™ College Football 27 $69.99 2,583 40% 77k $5.4M (exactly $5,423,525) Tiburon
RIDE 5 older $49.99 3,368 82% 101k $5.1M (exactly $5,050,990) Milestone S.r.l.
Cricket 22 older $44.99 1,717 81% 52k $2.3M (exactly $2,317,435) Big Ant Studios
Redout: Enhanced Edition older $19.99 3,438 84% 103k $2.1M (exactly $2,061,769) 34BigThings srl
AO Tennis 2 older $49.99 1,236 70% 37k $1.9M (exactly $1,853,629) Big Ant Studios
Teamfight Manager 2 · EA $19.99 2,251 60% 68k $1.3M (exactly $1,349,925) Team Samoyed
TT Isle Of Man: Ride on the Edge 3 older $49.99 653 76% 20k $979k (exactly $979,304) Nacon Studio Milan
Pure Badminton $19.99 323 81% 9.7k $194k (exactly $193,703) DS SOFT
Pro Basketball Manager 2026 $29.99 121 69% 3.6k $109k (exactly $108,864) Umix Studios
Pound for Pound: MMA Promotion Simulator · EA $19.99 136 96% 4.1k $82k (exactly $81,559) Pound for Pound Games
Femboy Futa Mania 🌶️ $14.99 174 71% 5.2k $78k (exactly $78,248) Lewd Star
FPV Labs - Drone Simulator · EA $19.99 104 67% 3.1k $62k (exactly $62,369) FPVLabs
Tennis Manager 26 $39.99 46 73% 1.4k $55k (exactly $55,186) Rebound

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.