Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + Archery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Archery Adventure game?

Adventure + Archery

Of 52 developers who shipped an Archery Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 123 more are announced, ×4.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $210k, ×462 the market median. Revenue is up 130% on the market; 123 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 130% on the market, 123 announced, ×4.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Archery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 52
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.5k → $6.3k → $3.6k → $719 → $3.2k → $898 → $2.4k (still earning) → $539 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Archery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 52
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $898 (exactly $898)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $14,840)
Top 5% $220k (exactly $219,527)
Developers, 2 yr 52
Released games 186
Announced 123
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 130% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Archery
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure, Archery; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 4,738 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $900, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $210k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 32 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 123 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Horizon Zero Dawn™ Complete Edition older $49.99 95,804 87% 2.9M $144M (exactly $143,677,259) Guerrilla
The Pathless older $39.99 1,944 90% 58k $2.3M (exactly $2,332,217) Giant Squid
Way of the Hunter 2 · EA $34.99 1,534 73% 46k $1.6M (exactly $1,610,240) Nine Rocks Games
TowerFall Ascension older $14.99 2,942 95% 88k $1.3M (exactly $1,323,017) Maddy Makes Games Inc., Extremely OK Ga… (Maddy Makes Games Inc., Extremely OK Games, Ltd.)
Northern Journey older $11.99 3,500 96% 105k $1.3M (exactly $1,258,950) Slid Studio
Robin Hood - Sherwood Builders older $29.99 1,020 68% 31k $918k (exactly $917,694) MeanAstronauts
Karnage Chronicles older $24.99 1,190 85% 36k $892k (exactly $892,143) Nordic Trolls
Grimlord $29.99 927 78% 28k $834k (exactly $834,022) Metalcat Interactive Co.,Ltd
Elven Assassin older $19.99 632 84% 19k $379k (exactly $379,010) Wenkly Studio Sp. z o.o.
QuiVr older $19.99 482 88% 14k $289k (exactly $289,055) Blueteak
Reach $29.99 244 66% 7.3k $220k (exactly $219,527) nDreams Elevation
Thief VR: Legacy of Shadow $19.99 340 75% 10k $204k (exactly $203,898) Maze Theory
Swords & Souls Legacy Collection $9.99 337 94% 10k $101k (exactly $100,999) SoulGame Studio
Sushi Ben $11.99 261 82% 7.8k $94k (exactly $93,882) Big Brane Studios, Inc.
Many Nights a Whisper $2.99 699 94% 21k $63k (exactly $62,700) Deconstructeam, Selkie Harbour
DragonRoad $19.98 82 91% 2.5k $49k (exactly $49,151) XuJie
Throbbin Hood 🏹🔞 $14.99 99 80% 3.0k $45k (exactly $44,520) BanzaiProject
Psionic Sentry : Infinite · EA $4.99 215 83% 6.5k $32k (exactly $32,186) Roy, 響雨互動娛樂, HowlingRain

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.