Do I ship it?

GamesCombatCombat + Archery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat Archery game?

Combat + Archery

Of 36 developers who shipped a Combat Archery game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 97 more are announced, ×4.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90; 1 in 20 cleared $200k, ×325 the market median. Revenue is up 110% on the market; 97 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 110% on the market, 97 announced, ×4.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Archery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 36
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.2k → $1.2k → $5.1k → $2.5k → $898 → $2.4k → $300 (still earning) → $539 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Archery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 36
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $898 (exactly $898)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,596)
Top 5% $204k (exactly $203,898)
Developers, 2 yr 36
Released games 124
Announced 97
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 110% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Archery
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat, Archery; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Adventure
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 942 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $900, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $200k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. Nearly all of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 97 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Project Sparrow · EA older $9.99 1,067 88% 32k $320k (exactly $319,780) Inspire Game Studios
QuiVr older $19.99 482 88% 14k $289k (exactly $289,055) Blueteak
Reach $29.99 244 66% 7.3k $220k (exactly $219,527) nDreams Elevation
Thief VR: Legacy of Shadow $19.99 340 75% 10k $204k (exactly $203,898) Maze Theory
The Vale: Shadow of the Crown older $19.99 326 97% 9.8k $196k (exactly $195,502) Falling Squirrel, Creative Bytes Studios
The Viking Way · EA older $14.99 331 42% 9.9k $149k (exactly $148,851) Ice Lava Games
Unknightly · EA older $19.99 221 69% 6.6k $133k (exactly $132,534) Portal Studios
Dragon Throne: Battle of Red Cliffs older $9.99 249 84% 7.5k $75k (exactly $74,625) Object Software, ZOOM Platform Media, J… (Object Software, ZOOM Platform Media, Jordan Freeman Group)
Winter Ember older $29.99 82 58% 2.5k $74k (exactly $73,775) Sky Machine Studios
Budget Cuts Ultimate older $19.99 110 88% 3.3k $66k (exactly $65,967) Neat Corporation
The Last King · EA $14.99 122 79% 3.7k $55k (exactly $54,863) Mayawi software
Phoenix's Faye $9.99 55 76% 1.7k $16k (exactly $16,484) BigFireball
Mythrealm · EA $14.99 33 87% 990 $15k (exactly $14,840) Delta Video Games
Goblin Attack $3.99 73 76% 2.2k $8.7k (exactly $8,738) BODOS
Ashen Arrows $17.99 10 90% 300 $5.4k (exactly $5,397) Rusty Pipes Games
Heart of Eternity $7.99 17 76% 510 $4.1k (exactly $4,075) Ukrainian Development Company
Smerch Battle Arena · EA $9.99 12 91% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Smerch Games
Tales of Isenberg $2.99 36 100% 1.1k $3.2k (exactly $3,229) Madarász András, Varga David

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.