Do I ship it?

GamesArcheryArchery + Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Archery game?

Archery + Dark Fantasy

Only 9 developers shipped a Dark-Fantasy Archery game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Grimlord, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×11 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $810 against a market of $630. 33 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 1335% on the market, 33 announced, ×11 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Archery + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $59 → $3.3k → $539k → $299
Outcomes for Archery + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $809 (exactly $809)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $14,840)
Top 5% $834k (exactly $834,022)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 30
Announced 33
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1335% on the market, supply 50% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Archery
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Archery
Price point
$8.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 4,472 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $810, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $830k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 7 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 33 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×11 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Archery with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Top-Down ShooterFair9 devs · median $359 · 11 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds13 devs · median $6.5k · 19 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashPoor odds18 devs · median $4.1k · 42 announced
  4. + HistoricalPoor odds11 devs · median $2.7k · 20 announced
  5. + RPGPoor odds28 devs · median $2.4k · 96 announced
  6. + PlatformerPoor odds13 devs · median $2.4k · 19 announced
  7. + HuntingPoor odds9 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  8. + NaturePoor odds11 devs · median $1.8k · 36 announced
  9. + Action RPGPoor odds19 devs · median $1.5k · 58 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds15 devs · median $1.5k · 47 announced
  11. + RoguelikePoor odds13 devs · median $1.0k · 25 announced
  12. + AdventurePoor odds52 devs · median $898 · 123 announced

All 46 pairs on the Archery page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BLACKTAIL older $29.99 1,968 83% 59k $1.8M (exactly $1,770,610) THE PARASIGHT
Grimlord $29.99 927 78% 28k $834k (exactly $834,022) Metalcat Interactive Co.,Ltd
Shady Knight $19.99 898 93% 27k $539k (exactly $538,531) Alexey 'cptnsigh'
Epic Fantasy Battle Simulator · EA older $9.99 426 84% 13k $128k (exactly $127,672) Mutiny Software
Testament: The Order of High Human older $19.99 84 42% 2.5k $50k (exactly $50,375) Fairyship Games
Caesar's Revenge older $13.50 82 85% 2.5k $33k (exactly $33,210) Pixel Barons
Mythrealm · EA $14.99 33 87% 990 $15k (exactly $14,840) Delta Video Games
Tales of Sintra: The Dark Vortex older $14.99 23 73% 690 $10k (exactly $10,343) Ippo Games
FERD · EA older $19.99 13 69% 390 $7.8k (exactly $7,796) AYCE
Journey of the Garden Rose $11.99 18 77% 540 $6.5k (exactly $6,475) Renegade Sector Games
Arrow Dungeon $8.99 3 33% 90 $809 (exactly $809) ParkDol
Imprecision $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Morgan Houston, MM's Gaming Community L… (Morgan Houston, MM's Gaming Community LLC)
Quiver and Die $0.99 4 25% 120 $119 (exactly $119) Raphael Robatto
Mystic Origins $7.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Matthew Lalande
Invisible Archery $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Darksody

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.