Do I ship it?

GamesTrading Card GameTrading Card Game + Arcade

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Arcade Trading Card Game?

Trading Card Game + Arcade

Only 11 developers shipped an Arcade Trading Card Game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Bomb Royale, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 17 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 6 developers shipped in the last year and 17 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 405% on the market, 17 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Trading Card Game + Arcade
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $239 → $450 → $1.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Trading Card Game + Arcade: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $450 (exactly $450)
Top 25% $4.9k (exactly $4,940)
Top 5% $19k (exactly $19,012)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 54
Announced 17
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 405% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 28%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Trading Card Game
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Trading Card Game, Arcade
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 269 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $450, 1 in 4 over $4.9k, 1 in 20 over $19k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 8 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 17 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Trading Card Game with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Immersive SimStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  2. + SandboxFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  3. + Inventory ManagementFair21 devs · median $1.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Procedural GenerationPoor odds10 devs · median $10k · 26 announced
  5. + TradingPoor odds16 devs · median $10k · 36 announced
  6. + Life SimPoor odds18 devs · median $10k · 21 announced
  7. + CollectathonPoor odds26 devs · median $6.3k · 41 announced
  8. + HistoricalPoor odds15 devs · median $6.1k · 25 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds11 devs · median $4.9k · 25 announced
  10. + Auto BattlerPoor odds22 devs · median $3.4k · 27 announced
  11. + Roguelike DeckbuilderPoor odds24 devs · median $3.4k · 38 announced
  12. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $3.1k · 36 announced

All 69 pairs on the Trading Card Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Captain Tsubasa: Rise of New Champions older $59.99 5,072 73% 152k $9.1M (exactly $9,128,078) TAMSOFT CORPORATION
SUPER DRAGON BALL HEROES WORLD MISSION older $59.99 1,404 82% 42k $2.5M (exactly $2,526,779) Dimps Corporation, SAFARI GAMES Co., Lt… (Dimps Corporation, SAFARI GAMES Co., Ltd.)
Barro older $4.99 3,253 85% 98k $487k (exactly $486,974) SC Jogos
FORCED SHOWDOWN older $19.99 491 82% 15k $294k (exactly $294,453) BetaDwarf
Barro Racing older $4.99 1,250 83% 38k $187k (exactly $187,125) SC Jogos
Beyond Gravity older $1.99 789 88% 24k $47k (exactly $47,103) Qwiboo Ltd
Control Craft 3 older $4.99 235 73% 7.1k $35k (exactly $35,180) Cristian Manolachi, Atomic Fabrik
Volleying older $1.99 358 70% 11k $21k (exactly $21,373) Gestalt Development Studio
Bomb Royale $4.99 127 62% 3.8k $19k (exactly $19,012) Onur Doğan
Cardburners $9.99 58 98% 1.7k $17k (exactly $17,383) GrosChevaux
TRUCO BAR $4.99 33 81% 990 $4.9k (exactly $4,940) LoboAnarquista, João Rafael Refatti Sil… (LoboAnarquista, João Rafael Refatti Silva)
XIII - A Final Game of Tarot With Death $1.99 34 91% 1.0k $2.0k (exactly $2,030) Indigo Dreams
Battle Hanafuda · EA $7.99 7 100% 210 $1.7k (exactly $1,678) SUZUKI PLAN, Yoji Suzuki
Food Fight $9.99 2 50% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Recoil Mojo
Battle Babes 3 $14.99 1 100% 30 $450 (exactly $450) Recoil Mojo
Games for Stream! $3.99 2 100% 60 $239 (exactly $239) Lacozy
Strange Monsters Memory $0.99 4 100% 120 $119 (exactly $119) SeeTheRaw
Insignis $1.00 1 100% 30 $30 (exactly $30) Fallen Crown Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.