Do I ship it?

Games › Hex Grid › Hex Grid + Arcade

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Arcade Hex Grid game?

Hex Grid + Arcade

Only 12 developers shipped an Arcade Hex Grid game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Gunbot Diplomacy, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 14 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $150 in the last 2 years and $480 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 5 developers shipped in the last year and 14 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 14 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hex Grid + Arcade
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $0 → $479 → $150 → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Hex Grid + Arcade: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $150 (exactly $150)
Top 25% $898 (exactly $898)
Top 5% $28k (exactly $27,844)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 36
Announced 14
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hex Grid
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Hex Grid, Arcade
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 8 games average 88% positive over 235 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $150, 1 in 4 over $890, 1 in 20 over $27k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 14 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Hex Grid with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Local MultiplayerFair12 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  2. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  3. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds7 devs · median $19k · 18 announced
  4. + Turn-BasedPoor odds22 devs · median $13k · 35 announced
  5. + SandboxPoor odds23 devs · median $12k · 40 announced
  6. + ExplorationPoor odds35 devs · median $12k · 55 announced
  7. + RPGPoor odds39 devs · median $10k · 96 announced
  8. + Strategy RPGPoor odds26 devs · median $10k · 60 announced
  9. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $9.9k · 60 announced
  10. + Card BattlerPoor odds12 devs · median $8.2k · 29 announced
  11. + RoguelitePoor odds42 devs · median $7.9k · 101 announced
  12. + RoguelikePoor odds37 devs · median $7.8k · 102 announced

All 69 pairs on the Hex Grid page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Blast-off 2018 · $34k Minesweeper Collector 2 2024 · $29k Gunbot Diplomacy 2025 · $28k Grav Blazer 2017 · $10k Hex Blast 2025 · $4.5k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Blast-off older $2.99 379 86% 11k $34k (exactly $33,996) Quad-Games
Minesweeper Collector 2 older $9.99 97 89% 2.9k $29k (exactly $29,071) Anton Kryukov
Gunbot Diplomacy $4.99 186 86% 5.6k $28k (exactly $27,844) Sleepy Sentry
Grav Blazer older $4.99 69 59% 2.1k $10k (exactly $10,329) Ripknot Systems
Hex Blast $4.99 30 100% 900 $4.5k (exactly $4,491) Soy Boy Games
Hexagon World older $9.99 10 30% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) Piece Of Voxel
Favo!+ older $7.99 11 45% 330 $2.6k (exactly $2,637) flow Inc., tackgames
Fungal Colony Simulator older $2.99 24 66% 720 $2.2k (exactly $2,153) Skylor Beck
HexeD older $5.99 10 90% 300 $1.8k (exactly $1,797) OAKgames
Darwins Trash older $5.00 8 75% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,200) bankbank
VR # AVOID $4.99 6 83% 180 $898 (exactly $898) s0trax994
Hexara $4.99 5 100% 150 $748 (exactly $748) Omnivorian
Free-Bees $3.99 5 100% 150 $598 (exactly $598) Alex Williams, Lloyd May
PSolTrix $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) MechanicsDriven
Hexashell $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Robert Choudury
Minesweeper Madness $2.99 1 100% 30 $90 (exactly $90) Bear Falls Games
Splitfire · EA $5.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) @thr3mix
Hexdo $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Free Rabbit Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.