Do I ship it?

GamesAuto BattlerAuto Battler + Aliens

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alien Auto Battler?

Auto Battler + Aliens

Of 20 developers who shipped an Alien Auto Battler in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450, ×0.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $2.6M, ×5652 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 27 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 27 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Auto Battler + Aliens
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $959 → $210 → $2.7k → $12k → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Auto Battler + Aliens: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $26k (exactly $26,083)
Top 5% $2.7M (exactly $2,684,890)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 38
Announced 27
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Auto Battler
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Aliens
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Auto Battler; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, Strategy, Tactical
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.49 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.49 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 6,812 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $450, 1 in 4 over $26k, 1 in 20 over $2.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 7 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Auto Battler with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $14k · 14 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonFair17 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  3. + AutomationFair112 devs · median $4.5k · 153 announced
  4. + Action RTSFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 28 announced
  5. + SimulationFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  6. + EconomyFair59 devs · median $2.4k · 79 announced
  7. + SandboxFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  8. + CyberpunkFair20 devs · median $1.7k · 25 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair23 devs · median $1.6k · 28 announced
  10. + CatsFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 14 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair78 devs · median $1.1k · 93 announced
  12. + SwordplayFair13 devs · median $1.1k · 8 announced

All 119 pairs on the Auto Battler page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tower Dominion $17.49 5,117 85% 154k $2.7M (exactly $2,684,890) Parallel 45 Games
Down with the Ship · EA $14.99 817 93% 25k $367k (exactly $367,405) Iron Anchor Games
Xenopurge $12.49 419 84% 13k $157k (exactly $156,999) Traptics
Swarm Queen older $7.49 384 94% 12k $86k (exactly $86,285) Helmi Bastami (Flyborg.net)
Lazy Galaxy 2 older $7.99 167 77% 5.0k $40k (exactly $40,030) Coldwild Games
Battle Grid older $5.99 204 80% 6.1k $37k (exactly $36,659) Barking Dogs
Corrupted: Dawn of Havoc · EA older $14.99 75 65% 2.3k $34k (exactly $33,728) 36Litters
Steve's Warehouse: Physics. Roguelike. Chaos. $7.99 130 87% 3.9k $31k (exactly $31,161) Definitely Named Steve
Flaregate Network $14.99 58 77% 1.7k $26k (exactly $26,083) Keycard Studio, LLC
Inventorix $4.99 131 100% 3.9k $20k (exactly $19,611) Arcaludi
Live Hard, Die Hard $4.99 83 89% 2.5k $12k (exactly $12,425) Asobism.Co.,Ltd
Idle Stellar $4.99 45 60% 1.4k $6.7k (exactly $6,736) Noody Games
Disaster Blaster $9.99 9 88% 270 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) Jarsick
StarShipdle · EA $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) CapriGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.