Do I ship it?

GamesTrading Card GameTrading Card Game + Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Adventure Trading Card Game?

Trading Card Game + Adventure

Of 33 developers who shipped an Adventure Trading Card Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 92 more are announced, ×5.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $260k, ×422 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 92 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 92 announced, ×5.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Trading Card Game + Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 33
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.9k → $5.4k → $1.8k → $955 → $809 → $450 (still earning) → $2.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Trading Card Game + Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 33
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $8.2k (exactly $8,247)
Top 5% $265k (exactly $264,873)
Developers, 2 yr 33
Released games 110
Announced 92
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 27%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Trading Card Game
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Trading Card Game, Adventure; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Card Game, Deckbuilding, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, 2D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 3,429 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $600, 1 in 4 over $8.2k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 92 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Trading Card Game with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Immersive SimStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  2. + SandboxFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  3. + Inventory ManagementFair21 devs · median $1.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Procedural GenerationPoor odds10 devs · median $10k · 26 announced
  5. + TradingPoor odds16 devs · median $10k · 36 announced
  6. + Life SimPoor odds18 devs · median $10k · 21 announced
  7. + CollectathonPoor odds26 devs · median $6.3k · 41 announced
  8. + HistoricalPoor odds15 devs · median $6.1k · 25 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds11 devs · median $4.9k · 25 announced
  10. + Auto BattlerPoor odds22 devs · median $3.4k · 27 announced
  11. + Roguelike DeckbuilderPoor odds24 devs · median $3.4k · 38 announced
  12. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $3.1k · 36 announced

All 69 pairs on the Trading Card Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Kingdom Rush Vengeance - Tower Defense older $19.99 9,906 93% 297k $5.9M (exactly $5,940,628) Ironhide Game Studio
Yu-Gi-Oh! Legacy of the Duelist older $19.99 4,452 83% 134k $2.7M (exactly $2,669,864) Other Ocean Interactive
Aces & Adventures older $19.99 2,220 89% 67k $1.3M (exactly $1,331,334) Triple.B.Titles
Faeria older $19.99 1,520 83% 46k $912k (exactly $911,544) Abrakam Entertainment SA
Dream of Corpse Lady $9.99 2,115 93% 63k $634k (exactly $633,866) HT3 Studio
Barro older $4.99 3,253 85% 98k $487k (exactly $486,974) SC Jogos
Doodle God older $14.99 1,030 77% 31k $463k (exactly $463,191) JoyBits Ltd.
Danganronpa S: Ultimate Summer Camp older $19.99 761 62% 23k $456k (exactly $456,372) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Arcanium: Rise of Akhan older $19.99 670 81% 20k $402k (exactly $401,799) Supercombo, Inc.
Heart of Crown PC older $24.99 528 80% 16k $396k (exactly $395,842) illuCalab, FLIPFLOPs, Japanime Digital
Anime Shop Simulator ✨ $14.99 589 73% 18k $265k (exactly $264,873) One More Time
Fuckstone $11.99 217 88% 6.5k $78k (exactly $78,055) Anime Mania
Succubless $11.99 146 67% 4.4k $53k (exactly $52,516) Supa Doge
修仙•母珠传 Pig Training Legend $7.99 192 72% 5.8k $46k (exactly $46,022) MouseKKK
Card Summoner $14.99 32 50% 960 $14k (exactly $14,390) Happenstance Games
Arctic Digger TCG Collection $9.99 34 79% 1.0k $10k (exactly $10,190) ToD Game Studio
ChronoBabes $3.99 81 80% 2.4k $9.7k (exactly $9,696) Vinci
Wild Country $24.99 11 54% 330 $8.2k (exactly $8,247) Lost Native
Treasure Atlas · EA $11.99 12 83% 360 $4.3k (exactly $4,316) zzeerr

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.