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Should I ship an Adventure Swordplay game?
Swordplay + Adventure
Of 155 developers who shipped an Adventure Swordplay game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 365 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×4.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $7.5M, ×12002 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 365 games are announced against 77 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $539 (exactly $539) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.7k (exactly $2,703) |
| Top 25% | $55k (exactly $55,019) |
| Top 5% | $7.5M (exactly $7,537,144) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 155 |
| Released games | 544 |
| Announced | 365 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Swordplay, Adventure; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, RPG
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person, Story Rich
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 86% positive over 253,349 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 7 in 10 of the 94 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 365 games are announced against 77 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Swordplay with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Visual NovelFair
- + Strategy RPGFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + DeckbuildingFair
- + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + JRPGPoor odds
- + Female ProtagonistPoor odds
- + FightingPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + Base BuildingPoor odds
Comparable games
Sea of Thieves: 2026 Edition 2020 · $386M 
Kingdom Come: Deliverance II 2025 · $260M 
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ 2019 · $184M 
STAR WARS Jedi: Survivor™ 2023 · $168M 
Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2018 · $129M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Sea of Thieves: 2026 Edition | older | $39.99 | 322,072 88% | 9.7M | $386M (exactly $386,389,778) | Rare Ltd |
| | Kingdom Come: Deliverance II | $59.99 | 144,558 93% | 4.3M | $260M (exactly $260,161,033) | Warhorse Studios | |
| | STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ | older | $39.99 | 153,782 88% | 4.6M | $184M (exactly $184,492,265) | Respawn Entertainment |
| | STAR WARS Jedi: Survivor™ | older | $69.99 | 79,990 71% | 2.4M | $168M (exactly $167,955,003) | Respawn |
| | Kingdom Come: Deliverance | older | $29.99 | 143,303 83% | 4.3M | $129M (exactly $128,929,709) | Warhorse Studios |
 | Dragon's Dogma 2 | older | $39.99 | 76,627 62% | 2.3M | $92M (exactly $91,929,412) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
 | Assassin’s Creed Shadows | $69.99 | 34,953 75% | 1.0M | $73M (exactly $73,390,814) | Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Bucharest & Craiova, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Osaka, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Ukraine) | |
 | METAL GEAR RISING: REVENGEANCE | older | $29.99 | 69,104 96% | 2.1M | $62M (exactly $62,172,869) | PlatinumGames |
 | Blade and Sorcery | older | $29.99 | 59,074 96% | 1.8M | $53M (exactly $53,148,878) | WarpFrog |
 | Ghostrunner | older | $29.99 | 46,818 91% | 1.4M | $42M (exactly $42,122,155) | One More Level, 3D Realms, Slipgate Iro… (One More Level, 3D Realms, Slipgate Ironworks™, All in! Games) |
 | Onimusha: Way of the Sword | $69.99 | 11,279 89% | 338k | $24M (exactly $23,682,516) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. | |
 | Half Sword | · EA | $24.99 | 28,656 71% | 860k | $21M (exactly $21,483,403) | Half Sword Games |
 | NINJA GAIDEN 4 | $69.99 | 8,459 88% | 254k | $18M (exactly $17,761,362) | PlatinumGames Inc. / Team NINJA / KOEI… (PlatinumGames Inc. / Team NINJA / KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.) | |
 | Like a Dragon: Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii | $59.99 | 6,584 88% | 198k | $12M (exactly $11,849,225) | RGG Studio | |
 | Rise of the Ronin | $49.99 | 6,503 64% | 195k | $9.8M (exactly $9,752,549) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. | |
 | Beast of Reincarnation | $59.99 | 4,188 56% | 126k | $7.5M (exactly $7,537,144) | GAME FREAK inc. | |
 | NINJA GAIDEN 2 Black | $49.99 | 3,289 78% | 99k | $4.9M (exactly $4,932,513) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. | |
 | Path of Kung Fu | $14.99 | 4,880 72% | 146k | $2.2M (exactly $2,194,536) | 游鲤化龙工作室 |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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