Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + 6DOF

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 6DOF Sports game?

Sports + 6DOF

Of 21 developers who shipped a 6DOF Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 31 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $810; 1 in 20 cleared $110k, ×176 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 31 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 31 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + 6DOF
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.2k → $3.7k → $22k → $74k → $809 → $25k → $1.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + 6DOF: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $809 (exactly $809)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,799)
Top 25% $29k (exactly $28,786)
Top 5% $110k (exactly $110,345)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 108
Announced 31
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $13.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
6DOF
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, 6DOF; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Immersive Sim, Action
Price point
$13.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with VR, Realistic, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $13.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 1,044 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $810, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $28k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $810. 7 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 31 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
CarX Street older $19.99 17,600 72% 528k $11M (exactly $10,554,720) CarX Technologies, LLC
Uncrashed : FPV Drone Simulator older $14.99 7,770 95% 233k $3.5M (exactly $3,494,169) Luminite
Walkabout Mini Golf VR older $24.99 3,094 97% 93k $2.3M (exactly $2,319,572) Mighty Coconut
TRYP FPV: Drone Racer Simulator · EA older $16.99 3,155 85% 95k $1.6M (exactly $1,608,103) UNDEAD BATTERY
Kayak VR: Mirage older $22.99 1,006 82% 30k $694k (exactly $693,838) Better Than Life
All-In-One Sports VR older $19.99 700 84% 21k $420k (exactly $419,790) Appnori Inc.
OverDrift Festival older $9.99 1,103 79% 33k $331k (exactly $330,569) OverDrift Crew
First Person Tennis - The Real Tennis Simulator older $24.99 349 87% 10k $262k (exactly $261,645) Mikori Games
Audio Trip older $19.99 278 91% 8.3k $167k (exactly $166,717) Kinemotik Studios
Virtual Sailor NG older $39.99 132 90% 4.0k $158k (exactly $158,360) Ilan Papini
Virtual Hunter $24.99 173 71% 5.2k $130k (exactly $129,698) Korpi Games Oy
Real VR Fishing $19.99 184 73% 5.5k $110k (exactly $110,345) Devs United Games, Inc
VR Sailing $7.99 307 96% 9.2k $74k (exactly $73,588) HFRK.
Virtual Skate · EA $19.99 96 98% 2.9k $58k (exactly $57,571) Flip Axis Studios
DrumBeats VR $14.99 128 65% 3.8k $58k (exactly $57,562) Marcel Eissens, VRROOM Ultimate VR Expe… (Marcel Eissens, VRROOM Ultimate VR Experiences BV)
Beat the Beats VR $19.99 48 97% 1.4k $29k (exactly $28,786) Parallel Circles
Dance Eden $19.99 42 85% 1.3k $25k (exactly $25,187) DigiEden
Drone Simulator VR $13.99 27 96% 810 $11k (exactly $11,332) 0Space
Fly Caster - VR Fly Fishing $14.99 14 85% 420 $6.3k (exactly $6,296) Electronic Imagination
Karting4Fun $7.99 25 76% 750 $6.0k (exactly $5,992) LukasH

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.