Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + 4 Player Local

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 4 Player Local Sports game?

Sports + 4 Player Local

Of 79 developers who shipped a 4 Player Local Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 113 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×3.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×213 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 113 games are announced against 49 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 113 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + 4 Player Local
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 79
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.1k → $1.9k → $1.7k → $5.1k → $2.3k → $1.5k → $1.3k (still earning) → $3.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + 4 Player Local: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 79
Bottom 30% $539 (exactly $539)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,098)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $12,594)
Top 5% $134k (exactly $133,966)
Developers, 2 yr 79
Released games 349
Announced 113
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
4 Player Local
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, 4 Player Local; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry PvP, Arcade, Local Multiplayer
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Family Friendly, 1990's
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 4,069 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. Nearly all of the 45 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 113 games are announced against 49 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
NBA 2K25 older $69.99 30,969 60% 929k $65M (exactly $65,025,609) Visual Concepts
SpeedRunners older $14.99 22,842 94% 685k $10M (exactly $10,272,047) DoubleDutch Games
Captain Tsubasa: Rise of New Champions older $59.99 5,072 73% 152k $9.1M (exactly $9,128,078) TAMSOFT CORPORATION
Sonic & All-Stars Racing Transformed Collection older $19.99 11,912 93% 357k $7.1M (exactly $7,143,626) Sumo Digital
DIRT 5 older $59.99 3,530 59% 106k $6.4M (exactly $6,352,941) Codemasters
Cricket 24 older $44.99 2,435 79% 73k $3.3M (exactly $3,286,520) Big Ant Studios
Lethal League Blaze older $19.99 4,767 97% 143k $2.9M (exactly $2,858,770) Team Reptile
Super Mega Baseball 3 older $44.99 1,832 92% 55k $2.5M (exactly $2,472,650) Metalhead Software Inc.
Tape to Tape · EA older $19.99 3,464 92% 104k $2.1M (exactly $2,077,361) Excellent Rectangle
Umamusume: Pretty Derby - Party Dash older $44.99 1,429 75% 43k $1.9M (exactly $1,928,721) Cygames, Inc., Arc System Works
Tennis Elbow 4 $29.99 1,077 96% 32k $969k (exactly $968,977) Mana Games
Super Woden: Rally Edge $12.99 1,552 96% 47k $605k (exactly $604,814) ViJuDa
Victory Heat Rally $19.99 599 88% 18k $359k (exactly $359,220) Skydevilpalm
SpeedRunners 2: King of Speed $9.99 447 55% 13k $134k (exactly $133,966) Fair Play Labs
Active Soccer 3 $14.99 123 72% 3.7k $55k (exactly $55,313) The Fox Software
Golden Tee Arcade Classics $29.99 45 86% 1.4k $40k (exactly $40,486) Digital Eclipse
Jonah Lomu Rugby Challenge 4 $39.99 30 70% 900 $36k (exactly $35,991) Glinda Games
Shoresy: Legends of the North $19.99 57 78% 1.7k $34k (exactly $34,183) Treewood Games
Up to Par $19.99 49 73% 1.5k $29k (exactly $29,385) It's Anecdotal
Floorball League 2010 $9.99 90 90% 2.7k $27k (exactly $26,973) Prodigium Game Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.