Do I ship it?

GamesSwordplaySwordplay + 3D Platformer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 3D Platformer Swordplay game?

Swordplay + 3D Platformer

Of 20 developers who shipped a 3D Platformer Swordplay game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 54 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $620k, ×1001 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 54 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 54 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Swordplay + 3D Platformer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $150 → $1.5k → $19k → $54k → $59 → $599 → $1.0k (still earning) → $3.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Swordplay + 3D Platformer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,395)
Top 25% $5.8k (exactly $5,838)
Top 5% $628k (exactly $628,486)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 75
Announced 54
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 135% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Swordplay
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
3D Platformer
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Swordplay, 3D Platformer; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Hack and Slash, FPS
Price point
$8.00 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Difficult
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.00.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 3,187 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $5.8k, 1 in 20 over $620k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 6 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 54 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Swordplay with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelFair13 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Strategy RPGFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced
  4. + Auto BattlerFair13 devs · median $1.1k · 8 announced
  5. + DeckbuildingFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  6. + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  7. + SamuraiPoor odds12 devs · median $80k · 21 announced
  8. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 22 announced
  9. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds39 devs · median $13k · 79 announced
  10. + FightingPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  11. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $12k · 53 announced
  12. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 26 announced

All 115 pairs on the Swordplay page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Soulstice older $39.99 1,845 76% 55k $2.2M (exactly $2,213,446) Reply Game Studios
SAMURAI MAIDEN older $59.99 648 60% 19k $1.2M (exactly $1,166,206) SHADE Inc.
Clone Drone in the Hyperdome $19.99 1,048 91% 31k $628k (exactly $628,486) Doborog Games
Bloodthief $19.99 1,017 95% 31k $610k (exactly $609,895) Blargis
Shady Knight $19.99 898 93% 27k $539k (exactly $538,531) Alexey 'cptnsigh'
Demon Sword: Incubus older $19.99 184 76% 5.5k $110k (exactly $110,345) Brianode
Xuan-Yuan Sword: The Clouds Faraway older $9.99 210 70% 6.3k $63k (exactly $62,937) SOFTSTAR ENTERTAINMENT, DOMO Studio
Hell of an Office $14.99 121 89% 3.6k $54k (exactly $54,414) 43 Studios
Diatomic older $9.99 135 76% 4.1k $40k (exactly $40,460) Diatomic Studios
Warden: Melody of the Undergrowth older $19.99 46 78% 1.4k $28k (exactly $27,586) Cardboard Keep
Ecrazeus Castle $4.99 39 84% 1.2k $5.8k (exactly $5,838) Meringue Rouge
ASHGARD: Infinity Mask · EA $9.99 13 84% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) ASHGARD GAMES
Ghost Infinite Labyrinth $7.99 15 60% 450 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) riinwin
Renxia $9.99 10 60% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) IcarusStudio
Slay The Berserker · EA $9.99 10 50% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) Advance Garde
InTheLake $4.99 16 100% 480 $2.4k (exactly $2,395) ZhiZhi

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.